Baby, It's Cold Outside...

folds up nicely in wallet

Credit to Jeff Frankels. (Not to be confused with Bobby Frankel.)

fuzzy wuzzy was a bear

Interesting times. Copied chart at right from Calculated Risk, who got it from dshort.com. I'm a big fan of bears (the fuzzy type, not the market type), so I was naturally drawn to the chart. It nicely illustrates where we currently stand relative to past economic downturns. The amazing thing about this recent slide has been the sheer drop off over such a short period of time, something this generation has certainly never experienced. The creepy talk now is about the commercial real estate markets, where cracks are starting to form. A scary development, for sure, because you just know that there was fuzzy math (yes, that's two fuzzies in one posting) involved with a lot of the assumptions on which loans were likely based. Now, with rents dropping and vacancies rising given all the folks getting canned, things do not look rosy. I guess the question becomes whether the CRE loans were as crummy as some of the residential ones. Based on historical behavior of our lenders (and borrowers, too), my money is on everyone having behaved badly. So, if you're of the mind that this bear still has legs, imagine it will be CREs and credit cards (you know it!) that keep bringing the pain. Combined with cash hoarding by my friends and me (still holding out on chair for living room and XBox 360), it should make for rocking '09.

On happier topics, Veiled Reference - you remember her? - is doing well. I don't talk about her too much these days because my keyboard can only take so many tears. It was tough watching We'reinthemoney win that 3yo filly race at Charles Town last month, particularly given the $125k purse and even more so by memory of the 10 length drubbing Veiled gave her when they met back in December of 2007. Am I bitter? Of course. Do I regret picking Sarah Palin to be my running mate? You betcha. I wish I could undo a lot of things, but that's not the way this business works. Anyway, VR is on the mend, chilling for the next month or so before starting back in January. I'll get up to see her one of these weeks and snap some pictures. Last I saw her, she was all grown up, not the gawky girl she was as a 2yo. I'll have to check whether she still has random anxiety attacks. I don't think she was heavily into bank stocks, but you never know with her.

breeders' cup

I should live blog this sonnofagun - two days of BC action - but I could never match the effort put in by lungfish over at acruns.blospot.com and his running diary of the Rays-Sox ALCS game 7. Compelling stuff, really. I'm afraid to think what might have happened had the game gone the other way. Has anyone live blogged while trying to extract their head from a flat screen tv? We came closer to it than you might think.

Ummm, yes, the Breeders' Cup. It's on right now on ESPN. Jerry Bailey is busy stating the obvious. All three of the guys on set are wearing pink ties. Ok, no problem there. I just remembered that it's breast cancer awareness month. Pink is cool by me. Very awkward bit featuring Bailey and Gary Player. Toward the end, when Player gives him big hug, Bailey is like, "you're gonna cut this out, right?" Greatest.

Ok, 2yo fillies on turf, usually a recipe for disaster. Euros probably better in the main, but post is tough for the top pair, not sure the rail filly classes up. How about Beyond our Reach at 15-1. Post is crummy, but you get Dettori, baby. She's been put in some awfully tough spots, so maybe the firm turf and drop in class helps the cause.

Oh, man, Lezcano riding like it's the 5th at Monmouth. Great ride. Heart Shaped made sustained run over the rock hard course. Dettori still out there picking daisies. Maram gets the photo! Good stuff. Small outfit takes it to Coolmore. Chad Brown used to work w/ Frankel. Ran his string at MP. Bobby a tough guy to work for, so this has to be pretty sweet for Chad. He's trying to play it cool on TV now. Ok, his grandpa passed away, so coolness is for a reason. All I do is put my foot in mouth doing this. Nice score, anyway, for Jose and Chad.

Man, I'm wiped. I'll be back for F/M Turf. No interest in balance of card, except to check out Zenyatta. Sealy Hill is live at a big price, says Brad Thomas, so we'll see what she can do. I'll hook her up with the logicals - Forever Together, Wait a While, Visit and Mauralakana. I'll play against the top two Euros. These ESPN guys are tough to watch. The knot on Bailey's tie so big, it's almost the size of his head. Randy Moss is okay, I should add. He actually offers some real handicapping. Joe Testosterone is wearing a pink tie AND a pink shirt. He is very aware, I'll give him that.

And we're back. Sealy Hill sitting at a juicy 44-1. Hoping she sits pocket trip before getting first run on deeper closers. Loading in the gate...Checked back to last. Fna. Time to start taxes....YES!!! Sealy Hill probably good enough to win, but gets up to complete sweet exacta with Forever Together. Let's see what this thing pays. Fna. The filly nearly won it. She doesn't get squeezed by winner and the placings are reversed. Proof once again that Brad Thomas a genius. Great, great times. Let's get a big number...Just off phone w/ Dad. He reports that exacta pays something like $440 for $2. Might have to start back on taxes, anyway. What a laugh! They can take me to the woodshed tomorrow, but this BC ended up on the plus side. Maybe keeping a running diary, a la lungfish, the key to gambling success. If Sealy Hill wins, it'd be raining dollars down here in Canton. Exacta still good enough for me to throw quarters at cars driving by. Glad you could share in the fun. I'm really exhausted now. Nap time...

policy shift?

It could amount to a whole lotta nothing, but caught today that NJ Governor Jon Corzine has nominated Jerry Zaro to take over Gary Rose's old gig heading up the office of Economic Development. Only reason I mention it is because while Rose was a big supporter of Atlantic City casino interests, Zaro is a more likely advocate for slots at the Meadowlands. He owns horses - or at least he did, as recently as last summer. His best one was Bold Child, a nice Flatter filly picked up for around $20k as a yearling, I think, that got hurt first back and was subsequently retired earlier this year. She was with Tim Hills and placed in the 2007 Sorority. He might have some J-breds in partnership, too, with his buddy, Dennis Drazin, head of the NJ horsemen.

Zaro a big Monmouth Park fan. He spearheaded the somewhat controversial move to sign an exclusive distribution deal with TVG a few years ago. I know that they've since cut deals with TrackNet, but I'm not sure if the terms require additional monies to TVG for the right to do so. Would have to get numbers from NJSEA. Wonder if he's of camp that advocates cut to boutique meet at MP? Law doesn't allow for it (141 is required), but I'd be curious to know where he stands. Given his strong connections with Chris Christie, too, does he stay on in the event that the Rs take the statehouse? Polling suggests that the race is tight, but we still have to see if Corzine sticks around or makes the move to DC as Sec. of the Treasury. Whole lotta insider baseball, but bottom line is that Zaro could be point man on slots push were it to happen, and that's the best news NJ horsemen have had on that front in some time.

market watch

Man, what a crazy few weeks it's been. Like everyone else, I'm caught up with the financial drama that's playing out, only because, as I told my wife, "it's probably important." I studied English and Political Science during my undergrad days, Urban Planning after that, but I've slept through enough econ courses to know that the goofiness with the world's stock markets, while compelling enough, doesn't really get to the heart of the crisis. Yes, it affects your 401k, sure, but it's more like a symptom of the bigger problem: the credit markets and fact that trust is good and dead in the banking world. Part of the problem is that these banks have crummy books, and because everyone knows that everyone else is BS-ing the valuations of these real estate backed assets, nobody wants to play ball. And, it's not like I can blame them. I mean, if you think that Bank X very likely has the financial equivalent of the clap, you're gonna stay home and play video games that night, right?

Anyway, Great Britain was the first to grasp the whole deal and determined that if everyone in the system is convinced that everybody else is sick, the only means to right the ship is to guarantee all the bad debt on the books in exchange for a percentage ownership of the bank. It's this game's version of a clean STD report to waive around, and the best chance to get banks doing business with one another. So, today's big market rally is really a celebration of that waive, pending or otherwise, of the magic wand by the world's governments, but likely doesn't signal that the road ahead will be anything other than bumpy. While we might have done something about these banks that f-ed up their books, we'll still have to deal with contracting growth, increased unemployment, additional credit deleveraging and empty coffers here at home.

I like to check out Calculated Risk, Econobrowser and Paul Krugman for thoughts on the whole deal. I'll often pass off their ideas as my own, so you can think of me as the Cliff Notes version of their collective writings. Be warned, though, that I'm prone to misunderstanding what they write, so it's probably better to check them out yourselves. Just as Cliff Notes never did much for me back in the day ("Sean, did you read the book?" was a fairly common notation on some of my earlier pre-Wikepedia writings on Women's 18th Century literature), I'll more often than not leave you with that empty feeling inside. Not fun times, I know. As Calculated Risk suggests, I'm tracking 3 month treasuries, the TED Spread and commercial paper. I have no idea what I'm looking at half of the time, but I am tracking those babies like a hawk. When I see movement, I note it, nod my head and file it away for nonsensical blogging.

Oh, and horses are good. Tattooed at Fasig Tipton sale. Half to Veiled Reference went for $67,000. That's him above. Good looking sucker, looks a lot like sister. We passed on him for $25 or 30k last December as a weanling, so missing the $15,000-20,000 that we could have pocketed on the flip. He has a bone spur on top of left knee that I couldn't shake (often a sign of other stuff going on, or waiting to go on in the joint), so I shouldn't kick myself too much. Only other filly in play, one by Malibu Moon, went for $100k, waaay more than we would have spent. We'll look at weanlings in December if the TED Spread plays in our favor.

no walkover

I'll be interested to catch tomorrow's Gold Cup at Belmont Park where Curlin makes his return after a less than stellar performance in the Woodward at Saratoga. In his defense, the Spa probably isn't a track best suited to his style, but he just didn't look all that hot in chasing down Pass the Point in a workman-like victory. Curlin's stride is pretty unique: long, obviously, but still very efficient. He toes in and the action is confined to a tighter vertical space (if that makes any sense), yet still covers a boat load of real estate. Once he gets into a rhythm, it's extremely effective. For whatever reason, he never really got comfortable last out. His stride was much shorter that you're used to seeing, almost choppy. I don't know whether it was the track, or what, but he just wasn't himself. So, we'll see which Curlin shows up tomorrow, but if it's not the guy we saw earlier in the year, he's vulnerable. Timber Reserve should sit a good trip off Wanderin Boy and get first run, so he has a chance at a number. Mambo in Seattle is no joke, but I'd prefer to have a horse with more tactical foot, especially given the likely pace scenario. An interesting spot, anyway, and no gimme for the champ.

As for Big Brown, it's fairly safe to say that he's of the same quality of an Afleet Alex or Smarty Jones. He's not one of the ones to go down in the books, but he showed last out in beating a legit G2.5 field that he's got some substance. Now, he's not getting 1m 1/4 out in California in the Classic, especially over the synthetic surface racing on the front end, but I'll give him his due. At 1m 1/8, he'd give those other two a good run for their money. It will be fun to see who shows up to take him on. California has some legit synthetic specialists, and the Euros seem to be gearing up for an invasion. Goal is to be live in that late pick 4 on Breeders' Cup Day to a few of those bombs.

seen this one before?

Call me crazy, but I believe that we've previously witnessed this performance from the current Administration. More than anything else in the news, it's a smack in the head to remind us that deliberate and thoughtful action is required to address the current financial mess. Now, I know that I typically stay away from politics and too much stuff outside of racing on this blog, but where we go from here in the short term on this thing is so important to where go, period, that I've got to add the few words to the mix.

Part of the problem, of course, is that very few people actually know what the heck is going on, including elected officials, regulators and, sadly, the chief down 95 from me in the White House. Sure, that doesn't come as too much of a surprise, what with the bar now so low, but I don't take comfort in the fact that he's perfectly happy to run off and do T-ball games and fundraisers and leave former Goldman Sachs CEO, Hank Paulson, to run the country. Don't remember Hank the Tank getting elected President (heck, even Bush's claim to the office has a hole or two), so it's just not the way it's supposed to work.

To help shed some light on the affair, I recommend a few reads. Yes, maybe some of them are a touch partisan, but they still do a good job getting to the heart of what's what, and, collectively, suggest that, while bold action might be required to get us out of this mess, bold and stupid will only serve to get us deeper in the hole. Two pieces at The Nation are good. This one takes you through events that led us to where we are, and the role that John McCain played along the way. The second does a really good job of walking through options on the table and why the quick-fix proposals pushed by Bush and Co. might not be wise.

Finally, Paul Krugman's recent piece in The Times, as well as the Morgenson number from the weekend. Together with the other two, they might get you thinking, and that's a good start.

and i'll take that one

They got our boy again. Bobby took the plunge for somewhere near a mil on a yearling filly by Medaglia d'Oro. I can almost hear the sweet whispers they hit him with about Courtly Dee and her pedigree. $1m for a daughter of Medaglia d'Oro? Ummm, yeah, I saw the Romans filly, man, but, geeze, it seems a bit much. Other than King of Rome, the mare hasn't had too much success. Unless, of course, you count the A.P. Indy colt that earned $90k back against his $550,000 yearling price. Tough, tough times. At least he'll get the depreciation, I guess.

how much for that bridge?

It's yearling season 2008, which always makes for fun times. Sure, I know they've been selling yearlings for months now, but September/October is when I typically try to dial in and see if there's anything worth picking up. Our last acquisition, Veiled Reference, was waaay back in 2006, at the Fasig-Tipton Timonium sale, so we're due to mix it up a bit. Like the big guns in the housing and equity markets, I'm counting on the feds to guarantee my solvency just in time to shell out the major bucks. (Judging by some of the mortgage-backed securities coming out of the woodwork, I'm not so sure that equine-backed ones wouldn't have stood a better bet.)

Anyway, I loved the story over at bloodhorse.com detailing all the high-profile yearlings that they'll sell early on. Big Brown's half-sister by Touch Gold is pictured above. Ummm, she's not much to look at, a little small and fine-boned (thank you, Touch Gold) and not much of a back end, but the clincher is how the consignor talks her up in the story (you have to scroll down a little bit): something to the effect of she's really smart, alert and has some spunk. For those not in the know, that's Kentucky-speak for, "she's not much to look at physically, but, shoot, she's a half to the Derby winner (one w/ physical issues of his own, we know), so somebody's gonna shell out some real money, right? Anyone?" Ha! Maybe they'll get celebrity chef, Bobby Flay, on the hook. I'm totally down with his cooking, but, man, has he been taken to the cleaners at the sales. I look at all of these sales results, and this guy is dropping serious coin with little to show for it. His $250,000 pick-up back at the May FT 2yo sale, a Successful Appeal filly named Colcannon, hasn't been up to much on the track, with just a 3/8ths breeze at Monmouth since the sale. He had that one filly, Grace and Power, that was nice enough, but otherwise the guy is getting clobbered. I'm confident that Mesa Grill and Food Network revenues are more than sufficient to keep him out of the poor house, and you can tell that the guy is really into the business, but he's been taking it on the chin for a few years now. If they rope him in on the Big Brown sister, we'll have to stage an intervention.

One other note before I forget. Barclay Tagg debuted a half to NoBiz Like Showbiz the other weekend up at Saratoga. The Broken Vow colt's name is Hello Broadway and he's got every right to be better than his brother. He made multiple moves to break his maiden impressively that day and demonstrated some real brilliance in the affair. His brother, NoBiz, was too much horse on top (Albert the Great, his sire's influence) and not enough leg, (and never did what Hello Broadway did in his debut), but the younger brother is all athlete - great balance and proportion, and just what you'd expect a good Broken Vow to look like. None of the gangly business you might find with an Unbridled (BV's sire), but more Nijinsky, Broken Vow's dam sire. To see what I mean, check out this video of Nijinsky winning the King George in 1970 and pay particular attention to the gallop out. You could rest a cup of coffee on his backside, no? Plus, take a look at his bone and then look at the photo above. Makes you want to go drop $500k on that Touch Gold filly, I'm sure. Anyway, just a reminder that Nijinsky was no joke, and it's good to see so much of him in Hello Broadway. Tagg will likely come back in one of those one-turn mile G1s at Belmont later this month.

taking a stand

The For Maryland, For Our Future group - the one advocating for slots here in MD - had an ad up on the Baltimore Sun website, so I clicked on it (I'm pretty easy that way.). So, as part of the website you can download widgets to put on your own site if you're so inclined. Obviously, the chance to add content here without putting forth much effort myself was too easy to resist. I was sorry, though, that they didn't put together any widgets with fat broodmares contentedly grazing in a field, or something along those lines. I mean, I'm not asking them to put up pictures of us gamblers whipping ourselves with programs as the horses come down the stretch, but it's kind of funny how the slots issue is framed as saving everybody, from the kids and seniors to the whales, before any mention is made of the racing industry. I get it. We're dirty, dirty people, and I paid just enough attention in those poli-sci classes back in the day to know that you craft referendum language in such a way that a "no" vote is tantamount to hating children.

As a side note, that's why I always take so long in the voting booth - those referendum items take so long to read! Then I get to tearing up over the language, forget where I am and what I'm voting on and have to start all over again. My rule for those things is kind of like my approach to summer novels: if I can easily enough suspend disbelief, believe that the President's daughter has been kidnapped and that a little known public defender in Vermont is called on to save her (and himself, plus a new, hot girlfriend!), I'll vote yes (keep reading, but sometimes just for those special chapters), but when the language gets so over the top that it borders on ridiculous, down goes the hammer, baby. So, pretty much most of those referendums that pass with, like, 90% of the vote, I'm in that other 10% because the language goes too far, as if they were writing it and just kept throwing in things like end hunger, plant flowers at every stop light and bring back the troops, and it's all wrapped up in some little township-wide resolution. Thank you, Mayor, but no thanks. I love kids, though, don't get me wrong.

Anyway, I've put up the widget above, but just wish I could modify its scroll to add a "For Sean," bit to it. Maybe a picture of me holding some Benjamins, or maybe just a few tens and fives, would be hot. Personally, I think the voters of Maryland would respond.

just like that

Crew at Shadybrook Farm down in Ocala must be pretty pumped. Bo Yates, who runs the operation (and is pictured at right with Nautical Agent), consigned Stardom Bound to the March OBS 2y0 sale earlier this year and yesterday she won the Grade One Del Mar Debutante. He bought the Tapit filly last year at Keeneland for $50,000 and turned her around for $375,000, which isn't the worst return on your money if you can get it. Bo breaks and trains for T Street, too, and he's been a great guy to have on the team. Honest, straight-shooter that works hard and has a good head for the game. I remember talking to him about this filly right after the sale, and he didn't have more to say than that she seemed to have a nice enough frame that would fill out with time. He likes to buy later, usually less mature or smaller foals (she was born in April), out of young mares with a bit of black type and then pray like heck that the develop nicely in time for the spring sales. Obviously, to flip her for the $375,000 suggests that she came along just fine (If I recall correctly, I think she worked a big 3/8ths at the sale). Judging by Monday's race, she continues to keep on the improve. I'll do my best to keep his ego in check now that he's gone big time. That's assuming, of course, that he'll keep taking my calls.

Props, too, to Anak Nakal, who won the PA Derby on Monday. He's by Victory Gallop, sire of the one and only, Nautical Agent. Like Nautical, Anak Nakal isn't the most talented horse, but the sucker just keeps trying and grinding along. Yesterday, he got up to nip IEAH's Acai right at the wire. Those guys are still swimming in cash from the score pulled off selling breeding rights to Big Brown to Three Chimneys, so don't feel too bad for them.

Speaking of Big Brown, how great is it that he'll run back at Monmouth Park next week? I hope they get a big crowd out to watch him take on some real turf stock in that race they put up. Now, my contention is that they played it all wrong asking for the $500,000 pot that MP is offering, because you know that some decent runners will show up for that kind of money. If the goal is to maintain the smoke and mirrors act, you ask for $150,000 and then just deal with Hotstuffandthensome coming back on two weeks rest. Given the 4-5 weeks or so that the race has been on the calendar means that some quality turf runners will take him on, and likely take the lion's share of the purse, too. Should make for great TV. "Yeah, well, the Breeders' Cup has always been our primary goal for the year, so this was just a chance to get a race into him and have him set for a big day out at Santa Anita. He faced some tough, older turfers, so we're really okay with the fourth place finish. We got what we needed and we love the people here at Monmouth Park. Oh, btw, tell track management to ship the few crab cakes we didn't eat up in the parterres back to me in Long Island. Man, were those good." Meanwhile, Three Chimneys is holding a $50m bag and will be stuck mapping out how they'll get out on that nut. Poor Big Brown will be seeing 250 mares a year right off the bat, I'd bet.

all i want for christmas

Stopped up at Fair Hill this morning to check in on Veiled Reference. She's looking good, eating well, as you can see above, and didn't seem too bothered by the interruption. Tim said she's up to jogging two miles each morning, most of the time on the dirt track, which gets a good deal less traffic than the Tapeta. Apparently, she's been much more aggressive in her training, so it's better for everyone involved if she has less horses around to chase after. Hopefully, she'll get plenty of that kind of action down the road. Vet reports that she continues to heal up nicely. Plan is about another month of jogging before picking up the pace heading into the fall. Kate doesn't know that her Christmas bounty depends on VR's return schedule and I'm not sure I've got the heart to fill her in. Fast forward to Rudolph time in a few months when I'm opening my XBox 360 and she's ripping into a bag of new hair clips that I picked up for her, and she'll probably make the connection. Figure I'll get her back with a big Valentine's Day, or maybe just wait for her birthday in the spring.

Sorry about the sideways video. I have no idea how to rotate it, so your best bet is to lay your head down on the desk and watch. Be sure to have a creative answer at the ready when your boss comes by and gets on you again for sleeping on the job. Maybe something about still reworking your sleep schedule from the Olympics would work.

connecting the dots ain't easy

The Baltimore Sun published a front page piece this morning on a study by the Maryland Tax Education Foundation that raises concerns over purse dollars earned at Maryland tracks flowing to out-of-state horse owners. The group's contention is that the state will approve slots in-state and then have all of the new monies wind up out of state in places like New Jersey. (I think that's my parents' plan, anyway). It's shocking, shocking stuff. I especially enjoyed the fact that, in 2007, almost 6% of those purse dollars went to owners based out of Maine. No kidding? Have my in-laws gotten in on the business and kept it to themselves? (Yeah, I'd play it close to the vest, too, given this operation, so no hard feelings.)

Regrettably, the article fails to address the turnaround of those dollars back into Maryland's economy. All that money ain't getting parked into out-of-state ING accounts, I'm afraid. Most of it is coming right back to where the horses are to pay for training, feed, blacksmiths, vets, chiropractors, van operators and the occasional horse whisperer. If the owner has the few bucks left after paying the bills, god bless. Besides, those surplus dollars typically go toward buying new stock more often than not.

The real story isn't where the owners hang their hats, it's the overall decline of foals dropping in-state. I mean, this is Maryland, where you'd normally go for some of the nicest, toughest thoroughbred blood out there. It's all leaving the state, though. I mean, look at our little operation. Veiled Reference is from a family that traces back to Kentucky, but was brought along here in Maryland by the Benders (Sondra and Howard; trainer is Larry Murray) for years. They culled Bocamis from their broodmare crop and where does she wind up? West Virginia, baby! You think that even 10 years ago that would happen? She'd still be eating crab cakes and drinking Natty Boh, because a local operator would have picked her up and had a go. Now, save for the few operations hanging on, a lot of breeders have moved on to places like West Virginia, Pennsylvania and New York.

Take, too, Nautical Agent, a Md-bred through and through. She's up in the Hudson River Valley doing her thing because I can either try to get a foal running for $75,000 NY-bred purses some day, or keep my fingers crossed down here that they don't turn Pimlico into condos. Which option strikes you as more appealing? I'd love to have her here, chilling on my back patio, but the economics of the game are such that I've got to go where there's a decent opportunity to earn out on our investment.

Finally, it's rather telling that Go For Gin is hailed as the star stallion in that Sun piece. I mean, Go For Gin is a nice enough stud, but threatening to take him to Pennsylvania is like me threatening Tiger Woods that I'm going to brush up on my swing. Ummm, don't think either scenario is causing anyone night sweats. So, other than Not For Love, who's, like, 28 years old, there isn't too much sire power in Maryland these days. The Stallion Station and Northview have a few solid ones, but none of the sort that had folks shipping in from all over to breed. In defense of the stallion operators, they can only keep what works for the local mare population, so it really all cycles back to getting more mares to foal in state and developing racing programs that help sustain increased breeding over time. More horses translates to larger fields, which translates to increased wagering, which translates to more money for track operators, purses, breeders, stallion owners, etc., which translates to more dollars pumped into the economy and state, increased open space and overall cheer. NY is a model to consider (save for their move to shorter racing, which they did to maintain numbers, but now are trying to get away from with increased purses going long - a step in right direction, anyway). PA is fine, too, but needs to work on its tracks. (Philadelphia Park in its current form as the epicenter of PA racing isn't going to cut it.)

Read the article. Stay in the loop. Vote in favor of the slots referendum if you live in Maryland. I'll work on the Maryland strategic plan, if only to get Nautical Agent down here to breed and ride to the Safeway for groceries.

I see your little belly.

Stopped at Dutchess Views Farm in upstate NY to pay a visit to Nautical Agent. We were on our way back from Saratoga and thought it only right to see how she's getting on. From the look of her, it seems she's doing quite well. Aside from the hazing she gets from older broodmares in the paddock while out at night, she's none the worse for wear. She was pretty frisky during our visit, as she thought it was time to go out and roll around in the field. I could see how sitting around with us would be the bit of a disappointment. Sometimes when I'm forced to spend time with myself, I feel the bit of a letdown, too. We brought carrots, but Donna (spotted above) told us that she loves these horse mints you see my mom offering up.

Farm was about 25 miles off of route 87, located in very pretty country. If we go up for the NY Breeders' Sale in October, we'll stick our heads back in to say hi. Staff there very friendly and they were good to have us for the visit. Nautical maybe a little bit taller and only just showing (w/ Gold Fever's love foal). With some of the purses for NY-breds we saw up at Spa, hope is that she keeps up good work.

we're walking, we're walking

Snuck up to Fair Hill this morning to meet up with my parents and pay a visit to Veiled Reference. She looked really good and has matured nicely as a three year old. Perhaps she's a bit too proud of her big belly these days, but that can be sorted out once she's started back in training (next week, I hope). You can check out her out, big bellzer and all, in the video above. Note how she longs for the extra camera time before heading back into the barn. "No, wait, we can take another take! I'm free all day! Call me!" Folks at Tim's barn were kind to have us, and were somehow getting through the morning despite the unbearable heat. I might have gone too far when I asked around for a glass of ice water with lemon; I took all the shaking heads to mean that they were fresh out. Garden hose did the trick, no problem.

mais non

Check out this video of the 1999 running of the Arc. Quite the cast of runners that came out for it, which is reason enough to watch, but I mainly raise it to help frame the debate surrounding Curlin's plans to ship out for this year's running. Frankly, I doubt he'll ever set hoof on French soil, but even if he does, I don't see him conquering French racing as he has here in America. It's the ground that will do him in. Sure, it might not be the bog that it was in '99 (remember how Daylami came back in Turf once on firmer footing?), but it sure as heck will be deeper than the US (and UAE) dirt tracks that he's dialed up to the tune of $9m. Big boy is a hard-pounding, dirt-loving, beast and I think he'll struggle to stay against top class going over conditions that aren't to his liking. While it looks like he'll get the really firm turf that he needs in NY tomorrow, which should help, I'd be surprised if he does enough to get his ticket punched for the trans-Atlantic flight. (Better Talk Now seems to be coming into this thing the right way; we'll see if there's a price to be had.)

So, no France for Curlin, which means Asmussen will have to back into the Classic. That means a race over the fake stuff as a prep (remember, they like to do things twice with him), so I guess Turfway or someplace like that followed by the Classic. There he has to deal with that Santa Anita track (both its surface and configuration), which really doesn't play to his strengths. Can't blame these guys for wanting to go to France instead, but it looks like they're stuck between a rock and a stale baguette! I'd take the California option over the turf, but Jackson stopped consulting me on spotting his horses a long time ago. I still drink his wine, though, because I'm not the kind of guy to hold a grudge.

she looks familiar

Was real thrilled to watch Ouchy Night run off in her debut last week at Belmont Park. Filly is daughter of Cactus Ridge that we went after last August at Saratoga when up there with Tim. Bidding stopped at $95,000 (we were out at $75,000, I think), so kudos to her breeder/owner for hanging on to the really nice prospect. I would have had a tough time going to a $100k for her, no matter how good she looked (and she was rock solid, man), so no hard feelings. Good to know that we were on to a nice one, anyway. Next time, I'm spending the money and rounding up dollars from readership via paypal. I figure that gets me about an extra 30 or 40 bucks, maybe, but I'll take what I can get. Can't touch the filly for less than $250k now, I'd imagine.

Barclay Tagg is happy with Princess Jess, winner of the Boiling Springs on Saturday at Monmouth, but feels that Joe Bravo moved too soon with her (scroll down in article). I'm no fan of Joey B., but I thought he actually rode her perfectly. She's a bigger filly with a more sustained run than an explosion and he did a good job to move with her on the turn and beat the quicker closers to the punch. She's more suited to the wide, sweeping turns of Belmont than she is to MP or the Spa (where she'll likely go in the Lake George), so I'm inclined to play against her next out, especially if Tagg is intent on having her, sit, sit, sit and make a run. She's a nice filly, but she'll get out-kicked to the wire playing that game against legit fillies. We'll see how it plays out later this month.

remember war emblem?

Thought it worthwhile to post the two pics, one each of War Emblem and Big Brown, both right after the start of their respective tries for the Triple Crown. Both horses stumbled at the break and went on to run poorly. More often than not, a shaky break, where the horse goes sideways, up or down from the bell, can portend of other issues at hand, whether they be physical, mental or a combination of the two. Some of you wise guys are recalling Rags to Riches, of course, who stumbled, as well, but went on to win the Belmont over Curlin. I'd argue that the stumble actually helped her, setting her up to sit off a slow pace and then explode for the few furlongs (her best game, especially against Curlin), but in the larger scheme, remember that she only ran the once more, months later in the Gazelle, before retiring due to injury. Was she dealing with the ailment way back in June? Maybe, maybe not.

Anyway, after his bad break in the Belmont, Big Brown's performance wasn't much of a surprise. He got frustrated, then the jockey got frustrated and then they both decided that they'd rather not play anymore (though Kent D. isn't allowed to pick up his ball and go home like the horse did). The IEAH guys, whether you like them or not, deserve credit for managing the horse really well, bringing him along as they did, and, most importantly, pressuring the Three Chimneys crew to ink the deal before the whole house of cards came crashing down. Had he won the Derby, do you think Baffert pushes to sell w/ Point Given before or after the Belmont, let alone the Preakness? After, of course. IEAH knew it was on borrowed time and put the screws to the Clay kid to maximize the score. Now Three Chimney's is in a spot where they need to restore some of the shine before shipping Big Brown off to Kentucky. My gut is that he romps in the Jim Dandy and is subsequently retired. No sense in trying him again at the 1m 1/4 in the Travers against some of the late-comers. Obviously, the Classic against older, Curlin or no Curlin, isn't in the cards. Just have to do enough to make the $100,000+ stud fee stand. I don't get it, what with the way the colt moves (not as the heavens drew it up, I assure you), but that's got to be the plan.

one and done

Great news out of New York today. Word came back that Nautical Agent is in foal to Gold Fever! Awesome stuff by our girl. She only had the one cover, obviously fairly late in the season, but it was enough to do the deed. The Agent never ceases to amaze. We're thrilled that she's caught and hope she gets on well through the summer now. Hope to sneak up there to pay a visit, maybe on the way up to the Spa in late July.

Veiled Reference is now back at Fair Hill to start up on a hand-walking program. She's doing well - radiographs a few weeks back were good. Plan is to walk her 30 days, see where she stands and go from there. Ballpark goal is that she progresses well enough to shoot for a return to the races later this year. It's been mildly painful to watch the 3yo fillies through the spring and early summer so far; just have to keep fingers crossed that she can join the fun sooner rather than later. No reason she can't have a big 2009 if she comes back in good form. She's only an hour away these days, so I really should make plans to see her, too.

Settling in ourselves down in Baltimore. Have to get some pictures up of the new digs. We've got a nice little rowhouse about 10-15 mins. from the Inner Harbor. It's great to walk to most everyplace and not have to fire up the car each time we're out the door. I've had fun sharpening up my parallel parking skills these past few weeks. My basic strategy is to slam the car behind the intended space at a good 45 degree angle and clear up the necessary room to land the old Sentra along the curb. I'm still perfecting my craft and managed to flee quickly from the one near-brawl that I set off last out, not knowing that the owner of the targeted vehicle was watching in his window. Kate suffered a few minor scrapes fleeing from the scene. She tripped and fell making her escape, but in her defense, I had her carrying the bulk of the groceries (and that milk and OJ combo can really weigh the bags down). I always make a point to carry the bread when making the move back to the house, so I was long gone when she went down. The guy was nice enough to just tell her that she married a moron and didn't take any cheap shots, or anything. Classy crowd down here, I tell you.

commendable made a comeback?

Things set up perfectly for Da Tara's wire-to-wire job yesterday in the Belmont. The inside had been playing well all day, Tale of Etaki looked bad in the post parade (all washed out from the heat) and couldn't muster up any real pressure, and Big Brown had but fumes in the tank after the two bang-up efforts. I wish I could report that I made some money, but no such luck. My favorite part of yesterday was catching footage last night of the IEAH guys giving hugs and kisses to Big Brown while peeking over every so often to see if the cameras were catching it all. Their PR people might want to have them take lessons from Brittany Spears, or somebody along those lines, on how to properly work it for the media. Too funny.

Poor Big Brown was just a tired horse coming off of the first two legs of the Triple Crown. The distance, track and timing of the race all worked against him. He hated the dirt (real dirt for the first time) on the first turn and was pretty miserable from that point on, even after getting out. Doubt that the lack of steroids meant much (they had served their purpose) and the biggest impact of the quarter crack was the lost training time. Fact that Da Tara pulled off the theft up front only confirms what the first two legs of the series had suggested: this is a mediocre crop of 3yos, at best. He ran slower and slooower each quarter and his Beyer Speed figure of 99 has to be one of the lower winning figures in some time. I'll have to dig up what Commendable ran when he pulled off a similar feat. (Can't find it readily, but I'd bet it was in the low 100s.) I hear that they had water issues at Belmont, but haven't seen reported that they didn't water the track as usual.

Horrible job by ABC covering the race, btw. It was all Big Brown before and after the race, with some ridiculous questioning immediately after the colt was pulled up. I don't like what Desormeaux did at all, especially given the fact that he said that he didn't feel anything wrong; he just knew he wasn't going to get 5th money so there was no sense in carrying on. Now, I've had my fair share of horses run that weren't in line to finish eighth, let alone fifth, but the routine is fairly simple for the jock: throw a few half-hearted crosses and maybe a love tap or two of the whip before galloping to the wire. None of this BS with pulling the horse up. I mean, that was just grandstanding. I don't know if that was on orders from Dutrow and IEAH to cover the mysterious ailment that will undoubtedly surface in the coming weeks, or what, but it caused a level of hysteria that was unwarranted and plain silly. Plus, it took away from Zito doing his shtick for the cameras, which I find fairly annoying most of the time, but would have infinitely preferred to the Big Brown nonsense, or, worse yet, those folks in the winner's circle.

Fact that connections have been so quick to target the Jim Dandy with Big Brown only plays into the notion that the colt is done. He gets beat badly and you're so puzzled as to why it happened and you've already got him spotted in, like, 45 days? Whaat? Maybe Kent will pull him up after a quarter mile in that one and he'll go straight to Three Chimneys right off the track. Bet those guys are thrilled with that $50m valuation these days. Young Clay, who put the deal together, will be a busy man talking up Big Brown at $100,000+ a pop next year. Sad thing, though, is that he'll get his 100+ mares and we'll have dubiously constructed offspring to watch race five times a year in no time. That is, the ones that make it to the races, of course.

state of affairs

T Street's experience at the recently concluded two-year-old in training sale at Timonium is fairly telling of the industry's current state of affairs. From a catalog of 700+ horses, I knocked it down to about 70 based strictly on superficial pedigree work (catalog only) and then 30 once having done additional research beyond the prettiness printed up on the official page. From that group of 30, approximately 10 more were knocked out simply based on their consignor (some of these outfits are less than scrupulous, shall we say). The 20 left quickly was down to 5 after watching breezes and then 2 (with one kind of borderline) upon viewing them in the flesh. (Let's give it up for the state of the breed!) Finally, the last horse standing was out once it was determined that he had a chip in his knee, which we only found out after x-raying him ourselves because the radiographs on file were dated and from a hand-cranked machine straight out of the 70s. So, great, great times all the way around. And it's not that I'm too discerning on the pedigree side of things - 10% from 700 seems fair, especially considering some of the nonsense bred these days - nor can we be accused of coming in with a small bankroll (it was millions, I swear). Quite frustrating and has me thinking more and more that we'll have to transition to breeding horses ourselves. The commercial market isn't doing the trick these days. If I needed an $80,000 2yo that could go 21 3/5 tomorrow and have a 50/50 chance of making the races from there, I'd be all set, but that's not my bag. I'll have to make inquiries into Nautical Agent's status up in NY. At the rate I'm going, I'll need that prospective foal as our next charge...

On the national racing scene, all the hyperbole surrounding Big Brown seems a bit much. Ummm, do I have it right that it was Macho Again grinding up for second the other day? Furthermore, the winner - who is quite nice, of course - earned a 100 Beyer speed figure for the effort. What happens if Kent really cuts him loose, (which he essentially did, btw)? He gets a 104? Not exactly the stuff of legends. The Japanese horse should beat him in the Belmont if only because he'll carry his speed the 12f. Kent D has already tipped his hand that he'll throttle Big Brown down in the next one, but Casino Drive has enough speed to lay close and just gallop Big Brown into the ground. He's not as smooth as the other two before him and doesn't have their burst, but his Peter Pan demonstrated that the track/distance should suit him. Main concerns are seasoning and the second off the plane angle, but he's been at Belmont for some time, so it's really more a question of the second race back after a big effort. The other thing is that Belmont track, which doesn't project to play in Big Brown's favor as CD and PIM did. Horses that normally run miles in 1.38/39 were rolling in 1.35/36 at Pimlico, so you know that the surface was playing nice and tight like he prefers. If it's Big Sandy instead of a paved highway, it's one more thing going for Casino Drive. Sake only for me over the next few weeks just to get into the spirit of things.

on the road again

Nautical Agent will travel north to New York State for a visit with Gold Fever, a son of Forty Niner at stud up there. It's a little late in the season, but rather than lose the year altogether, it made more sense to take a shot and see if she can catch quickly. She's been doing great hanging out with a few geldings on the farm in Colts Neck. Her recovery has been about as good as one can be, so we're thrilled to have the chance to see what she can do as a broodmare. Fingers are crossed that things go well with the breeding.

Gold Fever won the NYRA Mile back in the day (mid 90s, I think) and consistently gets runners. While not as commercially viable as some of the young guns out there, his ability to produce foals that get to the races and win is pretty impressive. They'll run on most anything, too, which helps keep options open. He's a medium-sized stud with a strong back end that I'm hoping will complement Nautical Agent's similar medium-to-small frame (w/ a so-so back end). Both have really good balance, a deceptively long stride for their sizes and were triers. He comes from a stacked Phipps family, which should match well with Nautical's deep Maryland roots.

She'll ship up there in the next few days and we'll see how things go. I imagine she'll be glad to return to NY, scene of some of her finest work.

not fun

I was up at the Meadowlands for the Derby and got out of there pretty quickly after the race. The whole deal was just sad, from the crummy under card to the Derby winner to the tragic breakdown of Eight Belles. Big Brown was impressive, of course, but it's not promising for the breed when the winner of America's classic race for young colts is lame at the warm-up and equally lame cooling out. Sign me up for a stallion share, pronto. Price no object. When the running started, he was all business and a winner at every call, but I imagine that, over time, this group will be found to be sub-par relative to recent generations and that Big Brown was just a standout on the day in an otherwise suspect lot. Most of that field ran quite poorly.

Eight Belles ran her race and performed remarkably well, but the story isn't about how well she did or didn't run, it's about the fact that her effort left her with two broken ankles before even galloping out past the clubhouse turn. It's the worst thing that can happen in this business and I really feel for all the folks involved with the filly. This one hurts a bit more, though, not only because of her obvious talent, a natural draw, but also because the connections made an aggressive play with their filly and got burned in the worst possible way.

Ultimately, I don't think it was any one thing that caused her breakdown, but rather a bunch of little, important factors that added up to open her up to serious trouble. They include the rock hard racing surface, added distance and related stress of race (she had never raced beyond 1m 1/16th), the big work on Sunday in 58 1/5, and perhaps the fineness of her bone. You couldn't point to any one particular item and suggest "that's the one," with definite certainty (though I'm sure many would point solely to the surface, which I can understand). Instead, as it always seems to be, it was likely a collection of variables that added up to increase the odds of something horrible happening.

As anyone that works with horses will tell you, every time they leave the stall (and even sometimes when they don't) it's always some measure of stress that their bodies are enduring. You control for it as best you can, bring them along in a fashion that empowers them to thrive and grow in concert with increased stress loads and stand ever vigilant and ready to back off in the event that the work load is too much. It's a daily balancing act and more like a high wire act with certain horses. Well, the stress was clearly too much yesterday for the poor filly. Somewhere along the line maybe the balancing act was knocked out of whack, maybe they squeezed just a bit too much out of that track during that Friday night. We'll never know for sure, but the tragic ending for Eight Belles reminds us to do our best to manage the wide range of variables constantly in play and that our foremost goal, win, lose or draw, is to get them back to the barn.

no charge for this stuff?

The Derby is on Saturday and the American thing to do is have an opinion. It's not a real opinion these days unless you then blog about it, so here goes. Let's rip through this field from the rail out.

Cool Coal Man - nice colt with big-time burst, but not going to be at his best going the distance. I can see him leading at the top of the lane after sitting a pocket trip and trying to hold off as many as he can. Marginal exotics use.

Tale of Ekati - another that doesn't project to relish the added ground. Don't care for how he's worked leading up to the race - that Wood might have taken a toll. Don't see him passing horses late in the race.

Anak Nakal - loves Churchill Downs and ran a big figure as a 2yo there last year. Horse grew tremendously over the winter and Zito only just getting him right/fit. He'll be better still in 4-5 mos, but the Derby is tomorrow, so no crying. He'll go off at 70-1 and I'll bet a few bucks to win and use him in all exotics. Maybe more likely to finish 6th-7th, but his chances of being around late are much greater than his odds will suggest. (Plus, he shares his sire, Victory Gallop, with our girl, Nautical Agent.)

Court Vision - super-duper trier, just doesn't have the ability. Didn't mature much from two to three and pretty much just gets by on his heart. If there's a total pace melt down, he can suck along for minor awards.

Eight Belles - don't see her as effective at the added distance and girl hasn't even gone the 1m 1/8. Not the spot to try it out.

Z Fortune - hope he can bounce back from big race at Oaklawn; all reports suggest he's training strongly. Pace/trip worked in his favor in last. If he can work out similar run, I can see him getting a piece.

Big Truck - not a fan of his work pattern and don't see him getting the distance. Company lines don't flatter.

Visionaire - fits the profile of Derby winner that we've seen all too often (okay finish in Blue Grass). Gotham effort was strong; works this week just okay, but he's reported to be a lazy work horse. I think he's got a really big shot. I know my man, Brad Thomas, has him on top. If he's sitting at 20-1, definitely worth a few bucks.

Pyro - if he dislikes the Poly, why still train at Keeneland? Missed some time recently, but galloping well late this week. He's a son of Pulpit, so it's not too crazy to think that he might be dealing w/ some physical issues. Asmussen can nurse one w/ the best of them, but you never like to come into the Derby w/ so many question marks. Wouldn't be shocked to see him win, but poor showing wouldn't surprise, either. Not the worst bet if price okay, but I suspect that he'll take action, so he's only a light use for me.

Colonel John - most likely winner, but he'll have to deal w/ dirt, which shouldn't be a problem and traffic issues which might. He's not the handiest horse. Gut is that something comes up and he's 3rd or 4th instead of winner. At 4-1, not much value, but a must use.

Z Humor - company lines not too hot and work this week didn't do much for me. Not using.

Smooth Air - trainer a good guy and solid conditioner. Colt another trier, but is really stretched at distance. Fever this week probably not a good thing.

Bob Black Jack - the X-factor. Does he rate or go? If he goes, he's in front of Big Brown and a major player through first half of race at a minimum. If pace unfolds in his favor, he can get a minor piece. If everybody goes, he'll take a good lot of them down with him. Minor use at best.

Monba - moves way up on the artificial stuff. Think he'll be over the top after a big effort in the Blue Grass. I'll play against.

Adriano - better on turf/artificial, but still a really nice prospect. I can't get past that he moves like a turf horse and doesn't seem to care for any kind of dirt in his face. Can he go 4-wide all the way around and win? I'll use him underneath.

Denis of Cork - lacks seasoning, but he'll be better down the line after some maturing. File away for Travers. Maybe he can get share on talent alone, I don't know. Minor use at big price.

Cowboy Cal - see Monba/Adriano. This guy is a turf horse.

Recapturetheglory - great story and nice, little colt. Ran a huge race in the Illinois Derby, but doesn't get same set-up and added distance no bargain, either. Don't see how race unfolds in a way that gives him any kind of breather, especially from this post.

Gayego - really talented and super-impressive in last two. How does he carry on the added eighth, though? Watch out if the two outside horses both go. Pedigree gets him here, but he'll be major player through good part of race and 3yo to watch for balance of year.

Big Brown - talented, but concedes major seasoning, experience and all that stuff. Post is terrible and he'll have some serious horses to contend with in opening quarters. At 5-2, he's an easy play against.

Action: I'll see what prices look like and probably have a couple dollars on Visionaire, plus the few on Anak Nakal at a number. I'll mess around in exotics with those two plus Colonel John, Cool Coal Man, Z Fortune, Pyro, Adriano and Denis of Cork. Good luck!

chirp, chirp

Sorry for the disappearing act over the last few weeks. It's been busy planning the move to Baltimore, showing the house and preparing for Kate's birthday. Every year, she insists that I top the previous year's celebration, so it's getting harder and harder to make magic. Last year, I had Siegfried and Roy put on a comeback performance to celebrate the occasion, but now I've used the big comeback card and need to branch out in new directions. I'm thinking of maybe casting my body in a solid gold statue, but that might be a bit over the top. I know, you'd think that it can't get much more OTT than the boys from Las Vegas, but it's a fine line. We'll see what I can cook up.

Horses are doing okay. Not too much to report that's new or different. Still sorting out a breeding plan for Nautical Agent and Veiled Reference putting her time in on the farm before a return. All reports indicate that both are well, but I'll be happier once I have the former in foal and the latter back in training. Two-year old in training sale at Timonium is coming up in a few weeks, so I'll have that to sort through soon enough. We bought a good one in Pretty Partisan down there a few years ago, and have tabbed a few others that have done okay, too, so I always like to work that sale over pretty hard. Now that I know a few more spots in Baltimore, I'll know where to hit up for dinner once the sales stuff has wrapped up. We were down over the weekend and had some fiiiine crabcakes at a place down by the water. I could get used to that kind of living, man, I will say that.

no, no, i said faster

Now that we've established that Big Brown - big, big winner of the Florida Derby - is, like, the greatest horse ever, let's take a looksie and see if all the hype is justified. Visually, the performance was really good, and he obviously has to be a horse of some caliber to pull off what he did in just his third lifetime start. But does he deserve to be the futures favorite in the Derby?

I just looked around for a link to the Derby favorite thing, which I couldn't find (I confess: I didn't look too hard), but I did come across a blog entry over at bloodhorse.com: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet. Fortunately, he doesn't touch on my case for knocking the colt, so I didn't have to scrap this little here blog entry, which would have been sad. I know my readership can only take so many entries on Nautical Agent's nicely healed leg and Veiled Reference spending lazy days on the farm. So, it's good that my man didn't steal my thunder. Setting aside the seasoning issue, which is real, of course, the primary reason that Big Brown will be a big bet against in a few weeks is that his profile just doesn't do it for me. Every quarter in that Florida Derby race was slower than the previous one, and that's not good. Have a look:

1/4: 22.76
1/2: 23.07
3/4: 24.25
1m: 25.10
1/8: 12.98
Final: 1.48.16

To compare it to something, in the last race of the day, won by Electrify, a nice Grade 2 1/2 colt, they posted the following splits:

1/4: 24.26
1/2: 23.03
3/4: 23.59
1m: 24.39
1/8: 12.66
Final: 1.47 4/5


It's that third quarter, where most top races are won and lost, that really raises some red flags for Big Brown. I mean, my man was really slowing down. The fourth quarter is an obvious concern. Add the fact that nobody in that race ran at all (Smooth Air, a nice trier was second, let's not forget) and it kind of puts things in perspective. He's a nice colt, sure, but what price would Electrify be in the Derby? 8-1? I just don't see the race shaping up in his favor, particularly with the pace profile he'll likely see. It won't be Nistle's Crunch (NJ bred!) sitting off of him, you know?

I'll stick with Colonel John, who only needs a solid race on Saturday in California. Others that might benefit from how the Derby is shaping up are Visionaire, a horse I don't particularly care for, but might get a great set-up; Cool Coal Man, who can also move and hold on; and, of course, Pyro, the most likely winner, who has a couple of holes. Let's hope War Pass rolls in the Wood and takes more action than he should in KY. It seems, though, that the book is out on him. Dennis of Cork probably won't try in the Illinois Derby, if you listen to his connections go on about the sheets. Z Humor can sit off Golden Spike and do a little something, something. His comeback was okay.

Nautical Agent, 3/28/08

"Do I see a camera?"


"Here, this is my better side."

Pics from visit to Ponderosa Farm in Colts Neck, NJ. Nautical looks great. Leg has done really well with the time off and she's her usual plucky self. She had a great time goofing around with the horses hanging out in the paddock just next to Doug. She kept on baiting them to come closer to her and then they would get themselves tweaked with the current that runs through the fencing. All three of them would jump up and then do it all over again. The things horses do to entertain themselves... Plans are still in the works, but she'll likely travel to Kentucky to breed in the next few weeks. Hopefully, she'll get a nice, healthy foal next spring.

where's the wire?

Go ahead and have a look at Steve Haskin's Derby notes recently posted up on bloodhorse.com. They're always worth the read, and every so often you get the nugget or two that's worth filing away. This week's piece is primarily on Pyro, so I figured it only fair to chime in with my thoughts on the colt (you know, because the world deserves to know where I stand). So, he's a nice horse. A really, really nice horse. The knock, though, as it relates to the Derby is that he'll be tremendously vulnerable at the distance if only because he moves too sharply for his own good. I mean, he's just a super-duper accelerator. He's not, though, much of a stayer, and you've got to have some stay in you to win the Derby. My gut is that he'll make his usual sharp move and find himself wanting in the final quarter. The form will go, he'll wonder what the hell is going on and someone will out-grind him to the wire. As I've previously posted, my money is on either Colonel John (stayer) or Elsyium Fields (grinder) to take him out. Doesn't mean Pyro is a bad horse, of course, only that's he'll be more vulnerable at the 1m 1/4 than some would have you believe. Now that War Pass has been exposed, I'll need Pyro to get to the Derby unscathed to have any hope of cashing a ticket worth the few bucks, so let's hope that he rolls in his final prep. For what it's worth, my favorite part of that whole article was the bit where Garret Gomez's agent, Ron Anderson, goes on about Pyro's greatness. Is there a bigger kiss of death than a jock's agent extolling your virtues? It's the equivalent of when TLC started up shows on flipping houses where total tools would put in new tile and hardwood floors and then beam into the camera about how easy the money was. I feel that the jocks' agents getting on board with Pyro is about the same thing. Makes me kind of skeptical. We'll see one way or the other whether his bubble bursts, too, in the few weeks.

randomness

I've become numb to the steady flow of traffickers through casa 26. I'm still bouncing back from the woman that went on about the crappy state of our kitchen cabinets and upstairs carpet. Even her husband was shrugging his shoulders after she had droned on for a good five minutes. It was a shrug that said "What can I say? This is my lot in life. My wife, she does not shut up. I know this. It is no use for me to interfere. Please ignore her." Anyway, that was the vibe I got from him, so I just rolled with her constant harping and figured we'd never hear from them. Not so fast, of course. Sure enough, a few days later their agent called to make an offer. Ha! Too bad it was obscenely under the asking price because, she said, "You must understand: much work will have to be done on the carpets and cabinets." Naturally, I asked what kind of cabinets she'd be putting in for that kind of spread in price. At least that got a chuckle out of the agent. She asked for a counteroffer and I countered with the original asking price. In retrospect, I probably took too much pleasure in that one. My regret is not throwing in $3.50 for polish to use on the current cabinets. Too bad everybody seems to have read this article in the Times about lowballing. At this rate we'll have buyers suggesting that we pay them to take the place off of our hands.

For now, I'm stuck with my toaster and kettle stored in the car and all my racing stuff hidden away, probably never to be found. Not fun times. One point that I forgot to make in an earlier post on War Pass is that the Florida race taught us that our boy isn't the bravest horse to look through a bridle, I'm afraid. When Velasquez tried to go between horses after the slow break, War Pass just wouldn't do it. He was scarred, plain and simple. Plenty of horses have the same problem, but when it's one of the Derby favorites, it's noteworthy. I'd be curious to know what kind of work Zito has had him do with other horses in the morning. Has he done much in and behind workmates? Interesting that the War Pass as a scaredy-cat angle hasn't gotten more ink. I guess it was more palatable for Team Zito/LaPenta to suggest a fever rather than come right out and say, "Yeah, we know he's brilliant on the front end, but I guess we learned today that he's fairly chickenshit, too, when faced with adversity." That's not the kind of quote you'd be able to write up on a stallion advertisement in a few years....(Mental note: do not breed to War Pass.)

in the books

Just wrapped up the Adena Springs and OBS 2yo-in-training sales down in Florida and can report that the T Street roster remains unchanged (it's a very select bunch). Both sales offer pros and cons and are worth putting in the time. The staff at Adena Springs knows its stock really well (after all, they've raised the full lot of 'em), so the reserves are typically spot on. It's one of those sales where you have to go in knowing what kind of conformation/x-ray issues that you're willing to deal with on a case by case basis. Joe Orseno buys a lot of stock at Adena because he knows the families really well (used to be Stronach's private trainer) and is probably more familiar with some of the issues that run through the generations. I like that each horse gets his or her own program on the breeze days. Stress levels are kept to a minimum and you're less likely to deal with injuries coming out of this sale than you would be with some of those consigned to OBS. I looked at two, fillies by Olmodavor and Milwaukee Brew (hips 43 and 104, respectively). They worked quite nicely, particularly the Olmodavor filly, but physical issues were their undoing. You can have a look at their works here, if you're so inclined. Both demonstrate great balance and efficiency of motion and neither are really pushed on for much run - just the kind of works I like to see. Too bad all parts weren't pointing in the right direction.

OBS, which just finished today, was interesting. All the horses really love the new artificial surface, as most horses do, so it's trickier to project how some of the stock might act on dirt. Pedigrees usually help, of course, but it's an added layer of speculation in an already highly speculative endeavor. Horses worked really fast over the fake stuff, which is no big surprise. The trend that got me was just how big some of the bodies were on these 2yos. Muscle mass was off the charts through the body, but, in the main, there was very little bone underneath to carry the load. It's well known that there are all sorts of supplements, steroids and witch's brews involved with a lot of the stock, but I found it more striking than in previous years. Some of these horses were laughingly large for their frames and you just know that physical stuff will surface before a red nickel is earned on the track. Key at this sale is knowing the consignors. I looked at one, a Wiseman's Ferry filly (hip 177; video here). She was nice - great body and balance - but I couldn't get past her lugging in during both breezes. Something must be cooking in that left side, I figure, so I didn't even bother going further into due diligence work. Sure enough, she went unsold at a final bid of $60,000 (quite light given her works), so she must have had something up. Maybe she'll be able to cope and do well on the track, I don't know. Just won't be on my dime.

not cool

Real nice of Bob Lapenta, owner of War Pass, to come out after the race and share that his colt had a little fever earlier in the week. (You can watch Tampa Bay Derby here.) Guess what, Bob? You keep that kind of information to yourself, talk up your boy all week, and then have him run like he did means that you can't play the fever card, I'm sorry. Either everything is disclosed beforehand, or nothing at all. War Pass was horrible, probably due to whatever he had going on, and the race is essentially a toss. I'd point him to the Met Mile, but they'll go in the Wood and look to continue on in Kentucky. A really, really good horse. Exposed a little earlier than most anticipated as a Derby pretender, but that's the nature of the beast this time of year.

Veiled Reference is coming up on her thirty days off come the end of this week. We'll radiograph her again and likely dial up another 30 days off just for good measure. That should set her up well to commence training in late April for a summer/fall campaign.

where to now?

Have to think that Majestic Warrior's best days are behind him. Mott's 3yo colt, owned by George Steinbrenner, looked awful in the Louisiana Derby. He was bad in the Champagne last year, too, so it seems that this guy has just gone the wrong way. Too bad. Based on how he came undone in the stretch at the Fair Grounds, his body might be too much for him to carry around, which you see often enough. The long, one-turn mile would have always been his best game, I think, but we'll see if he gets it together enough to get back to that kind of affair. Tale of Ekati, who also had a bad outing in that race, was pretty much done after getting throttled down into the first turn. He's the type that benefits from getting his head at least a little bit, but Prado had him strangled and the colt clearly resented it. They'll switch tactics next out and he'll be better off for it. I don't see him winning the Derby, mind you, but he'll run much improved in one of these preps coming up.

War Pass has one of his final two preps this Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs (other is the Wood). He faces six others, most notably Big Truck, which says a lot about the quality of the field. Big Truck a really nice NY-Bred, and I know Tagg likes him, but I hate this kind of spot for any serious Derby contender. Instead of toughening him up, these soft races will only serve to leave him vulnerable on the big day. It's the equivalent of playing two NFL pre-season games and jumping right into the playoffs; that first quarter mile of real pace with 19 other horses is going to be like a shot from some 300lb linebacker. Without some good, battle-hardening races beforehand, I don't think he'll be able to take it and carry his speed.

Open House this weekend, so feel free to stop by and take the tour. One recent visitor wanted to know if the furniture came with the house. She was mad that we didn't have walk-in closets, and imagine was looking for something to help make up for the deficiency. I told her we could work something out, no problem, so we might be sleeping on cardboard down in Baltimore. A small price to pay to get the deal done, I say. Kate might get annoyed that I threw in our clothes, too, but, what the heck, it's a good excuse for a little shopping. If you spot a smallish sixty-year-old Indian woman with a Kiss Me I'm Irish t-shirt on down the line, you've ID'ed our happy buyer.

brat

It's been Bananas, Rice, Applesauce and Toast for the last few days. I done did got nailed by a nasty little number making the rounds. Not fun. Trending in the right direction now, so thought it only right to check in.

The Derby is creeping up on us, which means it's time to start sorting through this year's crop of three-year-olds and see if we can't find ourselves a few good ones. Right off the bat, let's make it clear that I like War Pass and Pyro; they're both nice horses. Frankly, though, I just don't think that either is a Derby winner. The former is a speed machine that's likely to duck serious competition leading up to the Derby and the latter just doesn't strike me as one that will be as effective going a mile and a quarter. Who did he beat at the Fair Grounds this weekend? I mean, he'll be in the hunt because he's a nice horse, in general, but Pyro will be overbet on the day and very vulnerable at the distance. Projects as a perfect spot to play against the two favorites.

Of the 23 offered in pool two of the futures wager, I like Colonel John and Elsyium Fields. Both are bred to get the distance, should handle the quicker pace scenario of the Derby and are trained by top conditioners (Harty and Tagg, respectively). Colonel John has raced exclusively on artificial surfaces, which certainly adds a variable to the mix, but he moves like a horse that should handle dirt just fine. With more pace to attack than he had in that California race, he'll take back and make that sustained run that seems to win the race most years. Tagg's horse, on the other hand, is just a beast. If he holds it together through the year and thrives on Tagg's aggressive training style, he should win some big races. Could the Derby be one of them? Sure. He ran really well in his last at Gulfstream, parked wide most of the way, and has every reason to move forward next out.

We'll see what the spring brings, but it's always fun to have the few to follow. Plus, if things don't work out for Colonel John and Elsyium Fields, I can always fall back on the fever that wiped me out this weekend. How can you hold a man to conclusions arrived at under such physical duress? It just wouldn't be fair. Time for more applesauce. Maybe a nap, too. The typing takes a toll, you know.

smoke and mirrors

This is what the kitchen looks like now. Just wait until folks start opening up cabinets. There's at least a 50% chance that we take some poor unsuspecting visitor out with an avalanche of canned goods. Death by crashing garbanzo beans is a pretty awful way to go, but my plan is to soften the blow with added cash incentives at closing. "Yes, I took out your wife with my falling tower of beans, but, c'mon $2500 toward the closing has to take some of the sting out. We can still do business, right?" I've priced the place aggressively enough that I'll at least force my man to think about it.

Place goes on market in few days. We'll take walk-ins over the weekend and probably plan for an Open House next week. I'm working on my bread-making skills so the place smells just right for prospective buyers. Personally, I'd go for the smell of bacon sizzling away, but that idea was shot down. Besides, bacon grease all over the flyers might turn people off. I get it. When I start working as a selling agent in a few years, I'll employ the bacon bit (thank you, thank you very much), plus I'll go with a really hard sell by locking the door behind folks after they cross the threshold. It'll be kinda like how car salesmen work you over at the dealership, only scarier because of the bacon and whole prisoner motif. I have to flesh out the details, but that's the general direction I'll head in.