Friday, August 31, 2007

summer holiday


And we're back. Sure, disappearing for three weeks certainly isn't the best way to cultivate a readership, but I've been mailing in the month of August for most of my professional life and old habits die hard. Spent most of the time up in Maine. First, in the southern coast area in and around York and then up by Acadia National Park for another week. Ate lobster. Went swimming. Got married. In Kate's defense, she doesn't read the blog.

The stable marched on in our absence, of course. It was a real treat trying to pick up mobile phone coverage in Maine to touch base on a few things. Plans had been made in advance of the trip for the fillies, but we tweaked here and there on the fly, which is always fun. Nautical Agent and Fortuna are now up at Finger Lakes in upstate NY. The purses are much better for them than anything they'd chase down here at comparable class levels, so we pulled the trigger and sent them up with Doug Nunn, a good guy and trainer that we've worked with in the past. Some of you may recall that Doug did a lot of work with Pretty Partisan back in the day at Overbrook Farm in Colts Neck. He's a hands-on guy much like Tim Woolley and gets the most out of his stock. Both fillies ran about two weeks ago. Nautical Agent ran a much improved third over a sealed main track and picked up a nice check. Fortuna tried to rain on the wedding festivities (she doesn't like it when others get attention), finishing fifth in her affair that day, but didn't run all too badly given some of the things she was up against (post, pace). Both came out of the day in good order and should run back soon.

Mass Romantic continues to log on the miles at Fair Hill Training Center in Maryland. Tim is pleased with how she's coming along. She's muscled up nicely and has put in a number of solid works since getting back on the tab. They had her for a half mile in 49 flat the other morning, which was probably one of her first chances to pick up the pace in her training since getting back into the routine. She'll continue to add on distance and throw in the occasional speed work over the next month. Still looking at sometime in early October for a return.

Veiled Reference is still down in Ocala with Bo Yates. We're just waiting on a van to come together at this point (ship costs less with the fuller load), but she's still to the good. She worked an easy 3/4ths in 1.18 2/5 a few weeks back, so she's got most of the foundation that she'll need for the fall. Woolley will sharpen her up once she arrives north and we'll shop for a spot at Laurel. They run those 2yo maiden races fairly regularly, so I don't anticipate too much trouble getting her in. I'll get down to see both fillies with Tim once she ships in. After inspecting yearlings earlier this month and recalling what she looked like last year, I'm really excited to see where she's at these days. As with any model, validation is key, so it will be interesting to see how she's matured, particularly with this year's big yearling sales fast approaching.

Until then, time for lots and lots of laundry. (And don't judge me should I shrink all of Kate's tops. Roles needed to be clearly established right out of the gate, okay?)

Saturday, August 11, 2007

black friday


We must have needed a bigger downturn in the markets. Our lone bullet at the sale, a filly by Cactus Ridge, did not meet her reserve and went unsold with $95,000 as the final bid. That's her pictured. I can only imagine what kind of number they wanted, but a reserve north of $100,000 for the filly strikes me as excessive. I mean, her sire stands for $6500, so we're talking serious multiples of the stud fee. That'll teach me to stay away from first-year studs, even the more obscure ones like Cactus Ridge. Our other target, a filly by Five Star Day, didn't vet out for us, though she did sell for $95,000, an amazing figure given her size (small) and growing that she still had to come. It was a minor issue with her scope that knocked her off our list. If I had a few million in the bank and landed her for $35,000 it would be fine, but I'm short the millions and $95,000 is a tad much to buy her on spec.

We'll hang tight and gear up for the Keeneland and Timonium sales coming up over the next few months. I've always liked the Timonium sale, so it's not a bother to keep the powder dry until it comes around. The babies get a few more months to mature, my bank account gets a temporary stay and we'll have a better sense of where we stand with the two (Mass Romantic and Veiled Reference) coming along for the stable.

Friday, August 10, 2007

helping hands?

Just about to head out for the day. My associate, who shall remain nameless, insisted on a proper breakfast ("It's the most important meal of the day, Sean."), so we've got food in our bellies. I thought the steak and eggs was a bit much, but what are you going to do? Somebody might need a nap at around 11:00am.

It's raining solidly and the stock market was down last I heard, so outside factors might help our cause. The rain keeps buyers away and some of these guys are a little less trigger happy after looking at big-time paper losses in their portfolios. You can't get blood from a stone (the stone is my portfolio, of course), so I roll with the markets, no problem. It's always possible that we just get blown out of the water, anyway, but these are the things I have to tell myself before marching out into the rain for the day. Will report on day once back on the home front.

Thursday, August 9, 2007

so shiny

Spent the better part of the day looking at yearlings up here at Saratoga. It was a pretty good time - we saw some nice ones that we might look to have a go at and got to check out some studs that we'll be interested in later on in the season. We'll firm things up in the morning, but it looks like we might have one or two fillies that make the grade (down from 22 to start). The vet still has to have his say, so there's work yet to be done. I'm glad to have made the trip, though. Will be a long day tomorrow. The auction starts at 7pm, so we'll likely be forced to attend the races to pass the afternoon. It's rough going, really. I'll have to get my hands on the Form.

All else well with the stable. Tim is looking at a race next week for Nautical Agent. Mass Romantic will breeze back this weekend and Veiled Reference will work down in Ocala. That's her last breeze (I swear this time) before coming on up to Fair Hill.

Let's see how we make out tomorrow. These two fillies are pretty exciting prospects, so our fingers are crossed that one or two breaks go our way. If they fall through, at least we'll have the late double to get our heads around...

Wednesday, August 8, 2007

"check, please!"

Fortuna chased the pace for about a half mile before kicking off her weekend plans about four days early. Yes, she had some pace and trip factors working against her, but the bottom line is that she packed it in when given the chance. She doesn't seem too keen on passing horses in the lane, so we'll look to spot her where she can make all the pace and not worry herself with passing anyone (not that she would, necessarily). By all reports, she came out of the affair fine and handled the dirt well enough. We'll hope to fire again in a few weeks.

Off to Saratoga in the morning for the NY-bred sale. We've got a good list going in and a nice mix of fillies and colts to inspect. The pedigree work is done, so now it's about the physical stuff - conformation, balance, athleticism, movement, etc. We'll work through those issues, consider how they match up to their pedigrees and see if we've got any prospects standing. It's a fair amount of work, but usually a good time. If I have any luck with the computer, I'll shoot to file an update.

Tuesday, August 7, 2007

heat wave

Delaware Park canceled on Tuesday and there's a decent chance that they'll pull the plug on tomorrow's card. As of tonight, it's on and Fortuna will go (I use 'go' very loosely, of course). If I hear anything in the morning, I'll put something up. It's supposed to be even hotter tomorrow, so don't waste your time trying to apply logical thinking to how they make these decisions.

Veiled Reference worked a good half mile on Saturday down in Ocala (49 seconds). She worked with the same filly that went with her last out and kept pace well within herself. Last week Bo said that she got a little tired and had to work harder late in the breeze, but with the work under her belt she was plenty fit to handle her workmate on Saturday. I was off by a week on the ship - she'll work an easy 5/8ths this weekend before coming up to Maryland. That should give Tim a good 3o days to have her set for a debut at Laurel in late September.

Nautical Agent is jogging away at Fair Hill. She deserves a few weeks of light training after her last few in Virginia. We'll firm up plans for her over the coming weeks and look to get her back to the races later in the month.

I'm up at the Fasig Tipton NY-bred yearling sale at Saratoga later this week. I was encouraged by the declines posted in the Select sale (at least on Monday night). It seems that uncertainty over the stock market has given some folks pause. My asset allocation calculator calls for 0% bonds, 50% stocks and 50% equine flesh, so we're okay to test the waters. If I can get the computer up and running, I'll try to post from the Spa. You'll all be with me in spirit, I'm sure.

Sunday, August 5, 2007

who hits the road first?

Now that he's won the Haskell, if they didn't see fit to retire Any Given Saturday in the winner's circle, I guess it's only a matter of time before he heads to KY. I'll say that he goes in the Travers, finishes behind Sightseeking (shhh...) and then they pull the plug. As for Curlin, man, he did not look good. Normally a very smooth mover, his action was choppy, sloppy and just not what you expect from him. Sure, the turns were not his thing, but he didn't travel well at any point of the race. I guess he'd have to be the odds on fav to retire due to some kind of injury, but his owners need to beef up his resume for his stud career so they'll give him every chance. What could they stand him for now? $25,000? Something is clearly up with the colt. Rags to Riches is training well now, but no plans (other than the retirement ones waiting to be rolled out, of course) have been made...

Fortuna is in on Wednesday at Delaware Park. I nearly fell out of my chair laughing when I read the following from Woolley's site this evening:

Update 7: It was a cooler morning this morning and the horses appreciated the slight break in the weather. Meghan came in to ride Luke this morning. He escorted one of the Two Year Olds (Two of Wands) to the race track. She was fine but it is always a good idea to make sure they are used to a pony before they get to the races. Luke is very colorful as most of you know by his picture and if they are ok with Luke then almost no other color pony will scare them. This sounds like a funny thing but to some racehorses a paint horse can be scary. Nautical Agent trained today. She was very happy to go to the track and seemed to enjoy herself. Fortuna also trained today. She had an easy gallop and hopefully will get into a race on Wednesday at Delaware Park. She is a beautiful gray filly and loves to eat. We have to feed her first most days to keep her happy.

I mean, does that explain a lot, or what? Un-blanking-believable. Yeah, I'm all too familiar with the importance of a good appetite, especially with fillies, but that is just too funny. I can just see her stomping around and demanding her chow. Maybe she'll do us a favor and burn off some of those calories for a change on Wednesday...

weekend happenings

Mass Romantic had her first breeze back at Fair Hill this morning. She worked an easy 3/8ths on her own and looks to have done it well. She'll pick up the pace as the weeks roll on and this is just a step to kick off the process.

Veiled Reference was set to work a half mile down in Ocala over the weekend (they were keeping an eye on the weather before committing). If all is in order, she'll come up to Fair Hill coming out of this work. She breezed a half mile last week in company and did it readily. I'll be interested to see how she looks once up on the scene. She seems to be doing well and coming along as a nice filly should.

Social Queen, winner of the Eatontown at MP today (chart here) is the real deal. I don't know where Goldberg will go with her next, but she's got a nice future on the turf. The inside paths were best today, which happens every Haskell weekend it seems (as they save up the inside and then take the temporary rails down leaving great turf down on the rail and chopped up sod in the outside paths). Anyway, she was pace and trip compromised but still wore down a nice Pletcher filly late to take the stake. I'd imagine that you'll see her against Graded company next out, probably in NY.

We'll see if Hard Spun goes after Cable Boy tomorrow, or if his connections just hold him in such little regard that they let him go. If he goes with him, I'd take Cable Boy to win that pace battle. That call, one way or the other, will determine how the race shapes up. If Gomez gets Any Given Saturday off of the rail, it's his race to lose. Can't say I'm inspired by Gomez on the dirt (he's really, really good on the turf, though), but he's on the horse most likely to knock off the favorite.

Thursday, August 2, 2007

haskell shmaskell

Monmouth Park's biggest race of the year is just about upon us. Yes, the Haskell Invitational is this Sunday, so hit the ATM and gear up for some funny tote board action and perhaps the odd opportunity to make a few bucks thanks to misguided speculation from the masses. One of my favorite Haskells was a few years back when Funny Cide, who absolutely had zero chance in the race, took all sorts of money and ran third to Peace Rules and Sky Mesa. The exacta was an unreal $28 with the only two horses that figured (and, really, Peace Rules was a lock over that track on the day). I only bring it up because Curlin reminds me a bit of Sky Mesa in that you kind of wonder how he'll handle the tighter turns at MP. He's a big dude and, sure, he's the deserving favorite, but he's got a few things to overcome. Obviously, the race is Any Given Saturday's to lose. You know that Pletcher is pulling out all of the stops for Sunday and Winstar Farm has the adds ready to roll for the next Bloodhorse magazine (Grade One winning son of Distorted Humor!). Anyway, his Jerome was good and he'll get first run on Curlin in all likelihood. My gut is that Hard Spun is done; between getting him as sharp as they did for the Derby and then messing around with him in the Belmont (the Preakness, by the way, is on Jones, not Pino - that horse was so sharp you knew he'd run off once shown daylight down the backside), I just don't like the signs with him. Besides, he'd be better on turf, but we'll likely never see it. Cable Boy is a Grade 3 horse, a very nice one at that. He'll be going straight to the front judging from his works leading up to the race. Imawildandcrazyguy can clunk up for a piece. Reata's Whatever is in for the parterre box for the owners (which I entirely support; we thought about entering both Nautical and Fortuna, inviting all of our friends and living it up to the tune of $50,000 in the boxes. I passed to save the $500 ship from Maryland, sorry.). Xchanger is another nice horse, but like Cable Boy, I have doubts about him at the distance. He did relax nicely in his last, so he might stand to sit a trip, but he's just not cut of the same cloth as Curlin, I'm afraid. And, yes, Curlin is a beast and gets a pass for the Belmont where he sat an inside trip (he wants to be outside), was coming back on quick rest from the Preakness and didn't really get the ideal pace scenario to gallop the filly (or is she?) into the ground. I just wonder if he'll take the turns, but it's more a curiosity than anything that will send me to the windows. I'm rooting against Curlin if only because I want his record light enough come year end that they're forced to run him as a 4yo. That would be fun to see. They can retire Any Given Saturday right after the race, no problem. Cable Boy, too - he can stand in NJ.

Just make a point to watch the tote board on the day. There should be a good amount of money in the pools and there's certain to be an opportunity or two to make a play. Sure, you'll tear up your tickets as the crowd cheers on Joe Bravo at 3/5 race after race, but you can put your head on the pillow Sunday night knowing that you played it the right way.