where's the wire?

Go ahead and have a look at Steve Haskin's Derby notes recently posted up on bloodhorse.com. They're always worth the read, and every so often you get the nugget or two that's worth filing away. This week's piece is primarily on Pyro, so I figured it only fair to chime in with my thoughts on the colt (you know, because the world deserves to know where I stand). So, he's a nice horse. A really, really nice horse. The knock, though, as it relates to the Derby is that he'll be tremendously vulnerable at the distance if only because he moves too sharply for his own good. I mean, he's just a super-duper accelerator. He's not, though, much of a stayer, and you've got to have some stay in you to win the Derby. My gut is that he'll make his usual sharp move and find himself wanting in the final quarter. The form will go, he'll wonder what the hell is going on and someone will out-grind him to the wire. As I've previously posted, my money is on either Colonel John (stayer) or Elsyium Fields (grinder) to take him out. Doesn't mean Pyro is a bad horse, of course, only that's he'll be more vulnerable at the 1m 1/4 than some would have you believe. Now that War Pass has been exposed, I'll need Pyro to get to the Derby unscathed to have any hope of cashing a ticket worth the few bucks, so let's hope that he rolls in his final prep. For what it's worth, my favorite part of that whole article was the bit where Garret Gomez's agent, Ron Anderson, goes on about Pyro's greatness. Is there a bigger kiss of death than a jock's agent extolling your virtues? It's the equivalent of when TLC started up shows on flipping houses where total tools would put in new tile and hardwood floors and then beam into the camera about how easy the money was. I feel that the jocks' agents getting on board with Pyro is about the same thing. Makes me kind of skeptical. We'll see one way or the other whether his bubble bursts, too, in the few weeks.

randomness

I've become numb to the steady flow of traffickers through casa 26. I'm still bouncing back from the woman that went on about the crappy state of our kitchen cabinets and upstairs carpet. Even her husband was shrugging his shoulders after she had droned on for a good five minutes. It was a shrug that said "What can I say? This is my lot in life. My wife, she does not shut up. I know this. It is no use for me to interfere. Please ignore her." Anyway, that was the vibe I got from him, so I just rolled with her constant harping and figured we'd never hear from them. Not so fast, of course. Sure enough, a few days later their agent called to make an offer. Ha! Too bad it was obscenely under the asking price because, she said, "You must understand: much work will have to be done on the carpets and cabinets." Naturally, I asked what kind of cabinets she'd be putting in for that kind of spread in price. At least that got a chuckle out of the agent. She asked for a counteroffer and I countered with the original asking price. In retrospect, I probably took too much pleasure in that one. My regret is not throwing in $3.50 for polish to use on the current cabinets. Too bad everybody seems to have read this article in the Times about lowballing. At this rate we'll have buyers suggesting that we pay them to take the place off of our hands.

For now, I'm stuck with my toaster and kettle stored in the car and all my racing stuff hidden away, probably never to be found. Not fun times. One point that I forgot to make in an earlier post on War Pass is that the Florida race taught us that our boy isn't the bravest horse to look through a bridle, I'm afraid. When Velasquez tried to go between horses after the slow break, War Pass just wouldn't do it. He was scarred, plain and simple. Plenty of horses have the same problem, but when it's one of the Derby favorites, it's noteworthy. I'd be curious to know what kind of work Zito has had him do with other horses in the morning. Has he done much in and behind workmates? Interesting that the War Pass as a scaredy-cat angle hasn't gotten more ink. I guess it was more palatable for Team Zito/LaPenta to suggest a fever rather than come right out and say, "Yeah, we know he's brilliant on the front end, but I guess we learned today that he's fairly chickenshit, too, when faced with adversity." That's not the kind of quote you'd be able to write up on a stallion advertisement in a few years....(Mental note: do not breed to War Pass.)

in the books

Just wrapped up the Adena Springs and OBS 2yo-in-training sales down in Florida and can report that the T Street roster remains unchanged (it's a very select bunch). Both sales offer pros and cons and are worth putting in the time. The staff at Adena Springs knows its stock really well (after all, they've raised the full lot of 'em), so the reserves are typically spot on. It's one of those sales where you have to go in knowing what kind of conformation/x-ray issues that you're willing to deal with on a case by case basis. Joe Orseno buys a lot of stock at Adena because he knows the families really well (used to be Stronach's private trainer) and is probably more familiar with some of the issues that run through the generations. I like that each horse gets his or her own program on the breeze days. Stress levels are kept to a minimum and you're less likely to deal with injuries coming out of this sale than you would be with some of those consigned to OBS. I looked at two, fillies by Olmodavor and Milwaukee Brew (hips 43 and 104, respectively). They worked quite nicely, particularly the Olmodavor filly, but physical issues were their undoing. You can have a look at their works here, if you're so inclined. Both demonstrate great balance and efficiency of motion and neither are really pushed on for much run - just the kind of works I like to see. Too bad all parts weren't pointing in the right direction.

OBS, which just finished today, was interesting. All the horses really love the new artificial surface, as most horses do, so it's trickier to project how some of the stock might act on dirt. Pedigrees usually help, of course, but it's an added layer of speculation in an already highly speculative endeavor. Horses worked really fast over the fake stuff, which is no big surprise. The trend that got me was just how big some of the bodies were on these 2yos. Muscle mass was off the charts through the body, but, in the main, there was very little bone underneath to carry the load. It's well known that there are all sorts of supplements, steroids and witch's brews involved with a lot of the stock, but I found it more striking than in previous years. Some of these horses were laughingly large for their frames and you just know that physical stuff will surface before a red nickel is earned on the track. Key at this sale is knowing the consignors. I looked at one, a Wiseman's Ferry filly (hip 177; video here). She was nice - great body and balance - but I couldn't get past her lugging in during both breezes. Something must be cooking in that left side, I figure, so I didn't even bother going further into due diligence work. Sure enough, she went unsold at a final bid of $60,000 (quite light given her works), so she must have had something up. Maybe she'll be able to cope and do well on the track, I don't know. Just won't be on my dime.

not cool

Real nice of Bob Lapenta, owner of War Pass, to come out after the race and share that his colt had a little fever earlier in the week. (You can watch Tampa Bay Derby here.) Guess what, Bob? You keep that kind of information to yourself, talk up your boy all week, and then have him run like he did means that you can't play the fever card, I'm sorry. Either everything is disclosed beforehand, or nothing at all. War Pass was horrible, probably due to whatever he had going on, and the race is essentially a toss. I'd point him to the Met Mile, but they'll go in the Wood and look to continue on in Kentucky. A really, really good horse. Exposed a little earlier than most anticipated as a Derby pretender, but that's the nature of the beast this time of year.

Veiled Reference is coming up on her thirty days off come the end of this week. We'll radiograph her again and likely dial up another 30 days off just for good measure. That should set her up well to commence training in late April for a summer/fall campaign.

where to now?

Have to think that Majestic Warrior's best days are behind him. Mott's 3yo colt, owned by George Steinbrenner, looked awful in the Louisiana Derby. He was bad in the Champagne last year, too, so it seems that this guy has just gone the wrong way. Too bad. Based on how he came undone in the stretch at the Fair Grounds, his body might be too much for him to carry around, which you see often enough. The long, one-turn mile would have always been his best game, I think, but we'll see if he gets it together enough to get back to that kind of affair. Tale of Ekati, who also had a bad outing in that race, was pretty much done after getting throttled down into the first turn. He's the type that benefits from getting his head at least a little bit, but Prado had him strangled and the colt clearly resented it. They'll switch tactics next out and he'll be better off for it. I don't see him winning the Derby, mind you, but he'll run much improved in one of these preps coming up.

War Pass has one of his final two preps this Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs (other is the Wood). He faces six others, most notably Big Truck, which says a lot about the quality of the field. Big Truck a really nice NY-Bred, and I know Tagg likes him, but I hate this kind of spot for any serious Derby contender. Instead of toughening him up, these soft races will only serve to leave him vulnerable on the big day. It's the equivalent of playing two NFL pre-season games and jumping right into the playoffs; that first quarter mile of real pace with 19 other horses is going to be like a shot from some 300lb linebacker. Without some good, battle-hardening races beforehand, I don't think he'll be able to take it and carry his speed.

Open House this weekend, so feel free to stop by and take the tour. One recent visitor wanted to know if the furniture came with the house. She was mad that we didn't have walk-in closets, and imagine was looking for something to help make up for the deficiency. I told her we could work something out, no problem, so we might be sleeping on cardboard down in Baltimore. A small price to pay to get the deal done, I say. Kate might get annoyed that I threw in our clothes, too, but, what the heck, it's a good excuse for a little shopping. If you spot a smallish sixty-year-old Indian woman with a Kiss Me I'm Irish t-shirt on down the line, you've ID'ed our happy buyer.

brat

It's been Bananas, Rice, Applesauce and Toast for the last few days. I done did got nailed by a nasty little number making the rounds. Not fun. Trending in the right direction now, so thought it only right to check in.

The Derby is creeping up on us, which means it's time to start sorting through this year's crop of three-year-olds and see if we can't find ourselves a few good ones. Right off the bat, let's make it clear that I like War Pass and Pyro; they're both nice horses. Frankly, though, I just don't think that either is a Derby winner. The former is a speed machine that's likely to duck serious competition leading up to the Derby and the latter just doesn't strike me as one that will be as effective going a mile and a quarter. Who did he beat at the Fair Grounds this weekend? I mean, he'll be in the hunt because he's a nice horse, in general, but Pyro will be overbet on the day and very vulnerable at the distance. Projects as a perfect spot to play against the two favorites.

Of the 23 offered in pool two of the futures wager, I like Colonel John and Elsyium Fields. Both are bred to get the distance, should handle the quicker pace scenario of the Derby and are trained by top conditioners (Harty and Tagg, respectively). Colonel John has raced exclusively on artificial surfaces, which certainly adds a variable to the mix, but he moves like a horse that should handle dirt just fine. With more pace to attack than he had in that California race, he'll take back and make that sustained run that seems to win the race most years. Tagg's horse, on the other hand, is just a beast. If he holds it together through the year and thrives on Tagg's aggressive training style, he should win some big races. Could the Derby be one of them? Sure. He ran really well in his last at Gulfstream, parked wide most of the way, and has every reason to move forward next out.

We'll see what the spring brings, but it's always fun to have the few to follow. Plus, if things don't work out for Colonel John and Elsyium Fields, I can always fall back on the fever that wiped me out this weekend. How can you hold a man to conclusions arrived at under such physical duress? It just wouldn't be fair. Time for more applesauce. Maybe a nap, too. The typing takes a toll, you know.

smoke and mirrors

This is what the kitchen looks like now. Just wait until folks start opening up cabinets. There's at least a 50% chance that we take some poor unsuspecting visitor out with an avalanche of canned goods. Death by crashing garbanzo beans is a pretty awful way to go, but my plan is to soften the blow with added cash incentives at closing. "Yes, I took out your wife with my falling tower of beans, but, c'mon $2500 toward the closing has to take some of the sting out. We can still do business, right?" I've priced the place aggressively enough that I'll at least force my man to think about it.

Place goes on market in few days. We'll take walk-ins over the weekend and probably plan for an Open House next week. I'm working on my bread-making skills so the place smells just right for prospective buyers. Personally, I'd go for the smell of bacon sizzling away, but that idea was shot down. Besides, bacon grease all over the flyers might turn people off. I get it. When I start working as a selling agent in a few years, I'll employ the bacon bit (thank you, thank you very much), plus I'll go with a really hard sell by locking the door behind folks after they cross the threshold. It'll be kinda like how car salesmen work you over at the dealership, only scarier because of the bacon and whole prisoner motif. I have to flesh out the details, but that's the general direction I'll head in.

looking good

Got word over the weekend that Nautical Agent's x-rays came back looking good. The fracture has healed up nicely and the leg is on its way to a full recovery. Doug Nunn was especially pleased that the exterior of the leg has taken the trauma w/o as much of a sign of the injury. A lot of times you'll see these huge knots, twists and turns afterwards, but she's well enough that she can still fall back on a career in leg modeling. Like a lot of the top models, her diva ways will get her in trouble eventually, but with legs like hers, most folks in the business will put up with her anctics. When she demands her apples w/ a smear of peanut butter, she'll get 'em. Plan is to give her another 30 days before sorting out breeding plans for the season. Doug and I still have to kick a few things around. Good to know that she's doing so well and giving us options.

We're shooting to get our palace of a home up on the market this weekend, so it's been a zoo doing the bunch of projects and sorting through a lot of stuff. For anyone entertaining the idea of selling within, say, the next decade, do yourself a favor and start some serious cleaning/expunging right about now. I'll get some shots up of the finished product, but I thought you might enjoy a picture of our kitchen table from just the other day. You'll notice the Oreos right under that wooden bowl on the right. I keep those at the ready to sustain Kate's work on various projects, like grouting and caulking in the bathrooms. When I hear her body hit the floor in one of the upstairs bathrooms, I mute the television, put down my beer and run up there with two or three cookies to revive her. Then, if that doesn't do the trick, it's back down the stairs for the hammer. Fortunately, the only time it came to that she came to just before my return, but I was still annoyed to have had to make the two trips up and down. I know, I know, just keep the hammer upstairs. It's on the To Do list.