no, no, i said faster

Now that we've established that Big Brown - big, big winner of the Florida Derby - is, like, the greatest horse ever, let's take a looksie and see if all the hype is justified. Visually, the performance was really good, and he obviously has to be a horse of some caliber to pull off what he did in just his third lifetime start. But does he deserve to be the futures favorite in the Derby?

I just looked around for a link to the Derby favorite thing, which I couldn't find (I confess: I didn't look too hard), but I did come across a blog entry over at bloodhorse.com: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet. Fortunately, he doesn't touch on my case for knocking the colt, so I didn't have to scrap this little here blog entry, which would have been sad. I know my readership can only take so many entries on Nautical Agent's nicely healed leg and Veiled Reference spending lazy days on the farm. So, it's good that my man didn't steal my thunder. Setting aside the seasoning issue, which is real, of course, the primary reason that Big Brown will be a big bet against in a few weeks is that his profile just doesn't do it for me. Every quarter in that Florida Derby race was slower than the previous one, and that's not good. Have a look:

1/4: 22.76
1/2: 23.07
3/4: 24.25
1m: 25.10
1/8: 12.98
Final: 1.48.16

To compare it to something, in the last race of the day, won by Electrify, a nice Grade 2 1/2 colt, they posted the following splits:

1/4: 24.26
1/2: 23.03
3/4: 23.59
1m: 24.39
1/8: 12.66
Final: 1.47 4/5


It's that third quarter, where most top races are won and lost, that really raises some red flags for Big Brown. I mean, my man was really slowing down. The fourth quarter is an obvious concern. Add the fact that nobody in that race ran at all (Smooth Air, a nice trier was second, let's not forget) and it kind of puts things in perspective. He's a nice colt, sure, but what price would Electrify be in the Derby? 8-1? I just don't see the race shaping up in his favor, particularly with the pace profile he'll likely see. It won't be Nistle's Crunch (NJ bred!) sitting off of him, you know?

I'll stick with Colonel John, who only needs a solid race on Saturday in California. Others that might benefit from how the Derby is shaping up are Visionaire, a horse I don't particularly care for, but might get a great set-up; Cool Coal Man, who can also move and hold on; and, of course, Pyro, the most likely winner, who has a couple of holes. Let's hope War Pass rolls in the Wood and takes more action than he should in KY. It seems, though, that the book is out on him. Dennis of Cork probably won't try in the Illinois Derby, if you listen to his connections go on about the sheets. Z Humor can sit off Golden Spike and do a little something, something. His comeback was okay.