remember war emblem?

Thought it worthwhile to post the two pics, one each of War Emblem and Big Brown, both right after the start of their respective tries for the Triple Crown. Both horses stumbled at the break and went on to run poorly. More often than not, a shaky break, where the horse goes sideways, up or down from the bell, can portend of other issues at hand, whether they be physical, mental or a combination of the two. Some of you wise guys are recalling Rags to Riches, of course, who stumbled, as well, but went on to win the Belmont over Curlin. I'd argue that the stumble actually helped her, setting her up to sit off a slow pace and then explode for the few furlongs (her best game, especially against Curlin), but in the larger scheme, remember that she only ran the once more, months later in the Gazelle, before retiring due to injury. Was she dealing with the ailment way back in June? Maybe, maybe not.

Anyway, after his bad break in the Belmont, Big Brown's performance wasn't much of a surprise. He got frustrated, then the jockey got frustrated and then they both decided that they'd rather not play anymore (though Kent D. isn't allowed to pick up his ball and go home like the horse did). The IEAH guys, whether you like them or not, deserve credit for managing the horse really well, bringing him along as they did, and, most importantly, pressuring the Three Chimneys crew to ink the deal before the whole house of cards came crashing down. Had he won the Derby, do you think Baffert pushes to sell w/ Point Given before or after the Belmont, let alone the Preakness? After, of course. IEAH knew it was on borrowed time and put the screws to the Clay kid to maximize the score. Now Three Chimney's is in a spot where they need to restore some of the shine before shipping Big Brown off to Kentucky. My gut is that he romps in the Jim Dandy and is subsequently retired. No sense in trying him again at the 1m 1/4 in the Travers against some of the late-comers. Obviously, the Classic against older, Curlin or no Curlin, isn't in the cards. Just have to do enough to make the $100,000+ stud fee stand. I don't get it, what with the way the colt moves (not as the heavens drew it up, I assure you), but that's got to be the plan.

one and done

Great news out of New York today. Word came back that Nautical Agent is in foal to Gold Fever! Awesome stuff by our girl. She only had the one cover, obviously fairly late in the season, but it was enough to do the deed. The Agent never ceases to amaze. We're thrilled that she's caught and hope she gets on well through the summer now. Hope to sneak up there to pay a visit, maybe on the way up to the Spa in late July.

Veiled Reference is now back at Fair Hill to start up on a hand-walking program. She's doing well - radiographs a few weeks back were good. Plan is to walk her 30 days, see where she stands and go from there. Ballpark goal is that she progresses well enough to shoot for a return to the races later this year. It's been mildly painful to watch the 3yo fillies through the spring and early summer so far; just have to keep fingers crossed that she can join the fun sooner rather than later. No reason she can't have a big 2009 if she comes back in good form. She's only an hour away these days, so I really should make plans to see her, too.

Settling in ourselves down in Baltimore. Have to get some pictures up of the new digs. We've got a nice little rowhouse about 10-15 mins. from the Inner Harbor. It's great to walk to most everyplace and not have to fire up the car each time we're out the door. I've had fun sharpening up my parallel parking skills these past few weeks. My basic strategy is to slam the car behind the intended space at a good 45 degree angle and clear up the necessary room to land the old Sentra along the curb. I'm still perfecting my craft and managed to flee quickly from the one near-brawl that I set off last out, not knowing that the owner of the targeted vehicle was watching in his window. Kate suffered a few minor scrapes fleeing from the scene. She tripped and fell making her escape, but in her defense, I had her carrying the bulk of the groceries (and that milk and OJ combo can really weigh the bags down). I always make a point to carry the bread when making the move back to the house, so I was long gone when she went down. The guy was nice enough to just tell her that she married a moron and didn't take any cheap shots, or anything. Classy crowd down here, I tell you.

commendable made a comeback?

Things set up perfectly for Da Tara's wire-to-wire job yesterday in the Belmont. The inside had been playing well all day, Tale of Etaki looked bad in the post parade (all washed out from the heat) and couldn't muster up any real pressure, and Big Brown had but fumes in the tank after the two bang-up efforts. I wish I could report that I made some money, but no such luck. My favorite part of yesterday was catching footage last night of the IEAH guys giving hugs and kisses to Big Brown while peeking over every so often to see if the cameras were catching it all. Their PR people might want to have them take lessons from Brittany Spears, or somebody along those lines, on how to properly work it for the media. Too funny.

Poor Big Brown was just a tired horse coming off of the first two legs of the Triple Crown. The distance, track and timing of the race all worked against him. He hated the dirt (real dirt for the first time) on the first turn and was pretty miserable from that point on, even after getting out. Doubt that the lack of steroids meant much (they had served their purpose) and the biggest impact of the quarter crack was the lost training time. Fact that Da Tara pulled off the theft up front only confirms what the first two legs of the series had suggested: this is a mediocre crop of 3yos, at best. He ran slower and slooower each quarter and his Beyer Speed figure of 99 has to be one of the lower winning figures in some time. I'll have to dig up what Commendable ran when he pulled off a similar feat. (Can't find it readily, but I'd bet it was in the low 100s.) I hear that they had water issues at Belmont, but haven't seen reported that they didn't water the track as usual.

Horrible job by ABC covering the race, btw. It was all Big Brown before and after the race, with some ridiculous questioning immediately after the colt was pulled up. I don't like what Desormeaux did at all, especially given the fact that he said that he didn't feel anything wrong; he just knew he wasn't going to get 5th money so there was no sense in carrying on. Now, I've had my fair share of horses run that weren't in line to finish eighth, let alone fifth, but the routine is fairly simple for the jock: throw a few half-hearted crosses and maybe a love tap or two of the whip before galloping to the wire. None of this BS with pulling the horse up. I mean, that was just grandstanding. I don't know if that was on orders from Dutrow and IEAH to cover the mysterious ailment that will undoubtedly surface in the coming weeks, or what, but it caused a level of hysteria that was unwarranted and plain silly. Plus, it took away from Zito doing his shtick for the cameras, which I find fairly annoying most of the time, but would have infinitely preferred to the Big Brown nonsense, or, worse yet, those folks in the winner's circle.

Fact that connections have been so quick to target the Jim Dandy with Big Brown only plays into the notion that the colt is done. He gets beat badly and you're so puzzled as to why it happened and you've already got him spotted in, like, 45 days? Whaat? Maybe Kent will pull him up after a quarter mile in that one and he'll go straight to Three Chimneys right off the track. Bet those guys are thrilled with that $50m valuation these days. Young Clay, who put the deal together, will be a busy man talking up Big Brown at $100,000+ a pop next year. Sad thing, though, is that he'll get his 100+ mares and we'll have dubiously constructed offspring to watch race five times a year in no time. That is, the ones that make it to the races, of course.

state of affairs

T Street's experience at the recently concluded two-year-old in training sale at Timonium is fairly telling of the industry's current state of affairs. From a catalog of 700+ horses, I knocked it down to about 70 based strictly on superficial pedigree work (catalog only) and then 30 once having done additional research beyond the prettiness printed up on the official page. From that group of 30, approximately 10 more were knocked out simply based on their consignor (some of these outfits are less than scrupulous, shall we say). The 20 left quickly was down to 5 after watching breezes and then 2 (with one kind of borderline) upon viewing them in the flesh. (Let's give it up for the state of the breed!) Finally, the last horse standing was out once it was determined that he had a chip in his knee, which we only found out after x-raying him ourselves because the radiographs on file were dated and from a hand-cranked machine straight out of the 70s. So, great, great times all the way around. And it's not that I'm too discerning on the pedigree side of things - 10% from 700 seems fair, especially considering some of the nonsense bred these days - nor can we be accused of coming in with a small bankroll (it was millions, I swear). Quite frustrating and has me thinking more and more that we'll have to transition to breeding horses ourselves. The commercial market isn't doing the trick these days. If I needed an $80,000 2yo that could go 21 3/5 tomorrow and have a 50/50 chance of making the races from there, I'd be all set, but that's not my bag. I'll have to make inquiries into Nautical Agent's status up in NY. At the rate I'm going, I'll need that prospective foal as our next charge...

On the national racing scene, all the hyperbole surrounding Big Brown seems a bit much. Ummm, do I have it right that it was Macho Again grinding up for second the other day? Furthermore, the winner - who is quite nice, of course - earned a 100 Beyer speed figure for the effort. What happens if Kent really cuts him loose, (which he essentially did, btw)? He gets a 104? Not exactly the stuff of legends. The Japanese horse should beat him in the Belmont if only because he'll carry his speed the 12f. Kent D has already tipped his hand that he'll throttle Big Brown down in the next one, but Casino Drive has enough speed to lay close and just gallop Big Brown into the ground. He's not as smooth as the other two before him and doesn't have their burst, but his Peter Pan demonstrated that the track/distance should suit him. Main concerns are seasoning and the second off the plane angle, but he's been at Belmont for some time, so it's really more a question of the second race back after a big effort. The other thing is that Belmont track, which doesn't project to play in Big Brown's favor as CD and PIM did. Horses that normally run miles in 1.38/39 were rolling in 1.35/36 at Pimlico, so you know that the surface was playing nice and tight like he prefers. If it's Big Sandy instead of a paved highway, it's one more thing going for Casino Drive. Sake only for me over the next few weeks just to get into the spirit of things.

on the road again

Nautical Agent will travel north to New York State for a visit with Gold Fever, a son of Forty Niner at stud up there. It's a little late in the season, but rather than lose the year altogether, it made more sense to take a shot and see if she can catch quickly. She's been doing great hanging out with a few geldings on the farm in Colts Neck. Her recovery has been about as good as one can be, so we're thrilled to have the chance to see what she can do as a broodmare. Fingers are crossed that things go well with the breeding.

Gold Fever won the NYRA Mile back in the day (mid 90s, I think) and consistently gets runners. While not as commercially viable as some of the young guns out there, his ability to produce foals that get to the races and win is pretty impressive. They'll run on most anything, too, which helps keep options open. He's a medium-sized stud with a strong back end that I'm hoping will complement Nautical Agent's similar medium-to-small frame (w/ a so-so back end). Both have really good balance, a deceptively long stride for their sizes and were triers. He comes from a stacked Phipps family, which should match well with Nautical's deep Maryland roots.

She'll ship up there in the next few days and we'll see how things go. I imagine she'll be glad to return to NY, scene of some of her finest work.

not fun

I was up at the Meadowlands for the Derby and got out of there pretty quickly after the race. The whole deal was just sad, from the crummy under card to the Derby winner to the tragic breakdown of Eight Belles. Big Brown was impressive, of course, but it's not promising for the breed when the winner of America's classic race for young colts is lame at the warm-up and equally lame cooling out. Sign me up for a stallion share, pronto. Price no object. When the running started, he was all business and a winner at every call, but I imagine that, over time, this group will be found to be sub-par relative to recent generations and that Big Brown was just a standout on the day in an otherwise suspect lot. Most of that field ran quite poorly.

Eight Belles ran her race and performed remarkably well, but the story isn't about how well she did or didn't run, it's about the fact that her effort left her with two broken ankles before even galloping out past the clubhouse turn. It's the worst thing that can happen in this business and I really feel for all the folks involved with the filly. This one hurts a bit more, though, not only because of her obvious talent, a natural draw, but also because the connections made an aggressive play with their filly and got burned in the worst possible way.

Ultimately, I don't think it was any one thing that caused her breakdown, but rather a bunch of little, important factors that added up to open her up to serious trouble. They include the rock hard racing surface, added distance and related stress of race (she had never raced beyond 1m 1/16th), the big work on Sunday in 58 1/5, and perhaps the fineness of her bone. You couldn't point to any one particular item and suggest "that's the one," with definite certainty (though I'm sure many would point solely to the surface, which I can understand). Instead, as it always seems to be, it was likely a collection of variables that added up to increase the odds of something horrible happening.

As anyone that works with horses will tell you, every time they leave the stall (and even sometimes when they don't) it's always some measure of stress that their bodies are enduring. You control for it as best you can, bring them along in a fashion that empowers them to thrive and grow in concert with increased stress loads and stand ever vigilant and ready to back off in the event that the work load is too much. It's a daily balancing act and more like a high wire act with certain horses. Well, the stress was clearly too much yesterday for the poor filly. Somewhere along the line maybe the balancing act was knocked out of whack, maybe they squeezed just a bit too much out of that track during that Friday night. We'll never know for sure, but the tragic ending for Eight Belles reminds us to do our best to manage the wide range of variables constantly in play and that our foremost goal, win, lose or draw, is to get them back to the barn.

no charge for this stuff?

The Derby is on Saturday and the American thing to do is have an opinion. It's not a real opinion these days unless you then blog about it, so here goes. Let's rip through this field from the rail out.

Cool Coal Man - nice colt with big-time burst, but not going to be at his best going the distance. I can see him leading at the top of the lane after sitting a pocket trip and trying to hold off as many as he can. Marginal exotics use.

Tale of Ekati - another that doesn't project to relish the added ground. Don't care for how he's worked leading up to the race - that Wood might have taken a toll. Don't see him passing horses late in the race.

Anak Nakal - loves Churchill Downs and ran a big figure as a 2yo there last year. Horse grew tremendously over the winter and Zito only just getting him right/fit. He'll be better still in 4-5 mos, but the Derby is tomorrow, so no crying. He'll go off at 70-1 and I'll bet a few bucks to win and use him in all exotics. Maybe more likely to finish 6th-7th, but his chances of being around late are much greater than his odds will suggest. (Plus, he shares his sire, Victory Gallop, with our girl, Nautical Agent.)

Court Vision - super-duper trier, just doesn't have the ability. Didn't mature much from two to three and pretty much just gets by on his heart. If there's a total pace melt down, he can suck along for minor awards.

Eight Belles - don't see her as effective at the added distance and girl hasn't even gone the 1m 1/8. Not the spot to try it out.

Z Fortune - hope he can bounce back from big race at Oaklawn; all reports suggest he's training strongly. Pace/trip worked in his favor in last. If he can work out similar run, I can see him getting a piece.

Big Truck - not a fan of his work pattern and don't see him getting the distance. Company lines don't flatter.

Visionaire - fits the profile of Derby winner that we've seen all too often (okay finish in Blue Grass). Gotham effort was strong; works this week just okay, but he's reported to be a lazy work horse. I think he's got a really big shot. I know my man, Brad Thomas, has him on top. If he's sitting at 20-1, definitely worth a few bucks.

Pyro - if he dislikes the Poly, why still train at Keeneland? Missed some time recently, but galloping well late this week. He's a son of Pulpit, so it's not too crazy to think that he might be dealing w/ some physical issues. Asmussen can nurse one w/ the best of them, but you never like to come into the Derby w/ so many question marks. Wouldn't be shocked to see him win, but poor showing wouldn't surprise, either. Not the worst bet if price okay, but I suspect that he'll take action, so he's only a light use for me.

Colonel John - most likely winner, but he'll have to deal w/ dirt, which shouldn't be a problem and traffic issues which might. He's not the handiest horse. Gut is that something comes up and he's 3rd or 4th instead of winner. At 4-1, not much value, but a must use.

Z Humor - company lines not too hot and work this week didn't do much for me. Not using.

Smooth Air - trainer a good guy and solid conditioner. Colt another trier, but is really stretched at distance. Fever this week probably not a good thing.

Bob Black Jack - the X-factor. Does he rate or go? If he goes, he's in front of Big Brown and a major player through first half of race at a minimum. If pace unfolds in his favor, he can get a minor piece. If everybody goes, he'll take a good lot of them down with him. Minor use at best.

Monba - moves way up on the artificial stuff. Think he'll be over the top after a big effort in the Blue Grass. I'll play against.

Adriano - better on turf/artificial, but still a really nice prospect. I can't get past that he moves like a turf horse and doesn't seem to care for any kind of dirt in his face. Can he go 4-wide all the way around and win? I'll use him underneath.

Denis of Cork - lacks seasoning, but he'll be better down the line after some maturing. File away for Travers. Maybe he can get share on talent alone, I don't know. Minor use at big price.

Cowboy Cal - see Monba/Adriano. This guy is a turf horse.

Recapturetheglory - great story and nice, little colt. Ran a huge race in the Illinois Derby, but doesn't get same set-up and added distance no bargain, either. Don't see how race unfolds in a way that gives him any kind of breather, especially from this post.

Gayego - really talented and super-impressive in last two. How does he carry on the added eighth, though? Watch out if the two outside horses both go. Pedigree gets him here, but he'll be major player through good part of race and 3yo to watch for balance of year.

Big Brown - talented, but concedes major seasoning, experience and all that stuff. Post is terrible and he'll have some serious horses to contend with in opening quarters. At 5-2, he's an easy play against.

Action: I'll see what prices look like and probably have a couple dollars on Visionaire, plus the few on Anak Nakal at a number. I'll mess around in exotics with those two plus Colonel John, Cool Coal Man, Z Fortune, Pyro, Adriano and Denis of Cork. Good luck!