no charge for this stuff?

The Derby is on Saturday and the American thing to do is have an opinion. It's not a real opinion these days unless you then blog about it, so here goes. Let's rip through this field from the rail out.

Cool Coal Man - nice colt with big-time burst, but not going to be at his best going the distance. I can see him leading at the top of the lane after sitting a pocket trip and trying to hold off as many as he can. Marginal exotics use.

Tale of Ekati - another that doesn't project to relish the added ground. Don't care for how he's worked leading up to the race - that Wood might have taken a toll. Don't see him passing horses late in the race.

Anak Nakal - loves Churchill Downs and ran a big figure as a 2yo there last year. Horse grew tremendously over the winter and Zito only just getting him right/fit. He'll be better still in 4-5 mos, but the Derby is tomorrow, so no crying. He'll go off at 70-1 and I'll bet a few bucks to win and use him in all exotics. Maybe more likely to finish 6th-7th, but his chances of being around late are much greater than his odds will suggest. (Plus, he shares his sire, Victory Gallop, with our girl, Nautical Agent.)

Court Vision - super-duper trier, just doesn't have the ability. Didn't mature much from two to three and pretty much just gets by on his heart. If there's a total pace melt down, he can suck along for minor awards.

Eight Belles - don't see her as effective at the added distance and girl hasn't even gone the 1m 1/8. Not the spot to try it out.

Z Fortune - hope he can bounce back from big race at Oaklawn; all reports suggest he's training strongly. Pace/trip worked in his favor in last. If he can work out similar run, I can see him getting a piece.

Big Truck - not a fan of his work pattern and don't see him getting the distance. Company lines don't flatter.

Visionaire - fits the profile of Derby winner that we've seen all too often (okay finish in Blue Grass). Gotham effort was strong; works this week just okay, but he's reported to be a lazy work horse. I think he's got a really big shot. I know my man, Brad Thomas, has him on top. If he's sitting at 20-1, definitely worth a few bucks.

Pyro - if he dislikes the Poly, why still train at Keeneland? Missed some time recently, but galloping well late this week. He's a son of Pulpit, so it's not too crazy to think that he might be dealing w/ some physical issues. Asmussen can nurse one w/ the best of them, but you never like to come into the Derby w/ so many question marks. Wouldn't be shocked to see him win, but poor showing wouldn't surprise, either. Not the worst bet if price okay, but I suspect that he'll take action, so he's only a light use for me.

Colonel John - most likely winner, but he'll have to deal w/ dirt, which shouldn't be a problem and traffic issues which might. He's not the handiest horse. Gut is that something comes up and he's 3rd or 4th instead of winner. At 4-1, not much value, but a must use.

Z Humor - company lines not too hot and work this week didn't do much for me. Not using.

Smooth Air - trainer a good guy and solid conditioner. Colt another trier, but is really stretched at distance. Fever this week probably not a good thing.

Bob Black Jack - the X-factor. Does he rate or go? If he goes, he's in front of Big Brown and a major player through first half of race at a minimum. If pace unfolds in his favor, he can get a minor piece. If everybody goes, he'll take a good lot of them down with him. Minor use at best.

Monba - moves way up on the artificial stuff. Think he'll be over the top after a big effort in the Blue Grass. I'll play against.

Adriano - better on turf/artificial, but still a really nice prospect. I can't get past that he moves like a turf horse and doesn't seem to care for any kind of dirt in his face. Can he go 4-wide all the way around and win? I'll use him underneath.

Denis of Cork - lacks seasoning, but he'll be better down the line after some maturing. File away for Travers. Maybe he can get share on talent alone, I don't know. Minor use at big price.

Cowboy Cal - see Monba/Adriano. This guy is a turf horse.

Recapturetheglory - great story and nice, little colt. Ran a huge race in the Illinois Derby, but doesn't get same set-up and added distance no bargain, either. Don't see how race unfolds in a way that gives him any kind of breather, especially from this post.

Gayego - really talented and super-impressive in last two. How does he carry on the added eighth, though? Watch out if the two outside horses both go. Pedigree gets him here, but he'll be major player through good part of race and 3yo to watch for balance of year.

Big Brown - talented, but concedes major seasoning, experience and all that stuff. Post is terrible and he'll have some serious horses to contend with in opening quarters. At 5-2, he's an easy play against.

Action: I'll see what prices look like and probably have a couple dollars on Visionaire, plus the few on Anak Nakal at a number. I'll mess around in exotics with those two plus Colonel John, Cool Coal Man, Z Fortune, Pyro, Adriano and Denis of Cork. Good luck!