state of affairs

T Street's experience at the recently concluded two-year-old in training sale at Timonium is fairly telling of the industry's current state of affairs. From a catalog of 700+ horses, I knocked it down to about 70 based strictly on superficial pedigree work (catalog only) and then 30 once having done additional research beyond the prettiness printed up on the official page. From that group of 30, approximately 10 more were knocked out simply based on their consignor (some of these outfits are less than scrupulous, shall we say). The 20 left quickly was down to 5 after watching breezes and then 2 (with one kind of borderline) upon viewing them in the flesh. (Let's give it up for the state of the breed!) Finally, the last horse standing was out once it was determined that he had a chip in his knee, which we only found out after x-raying him ourselves because the radiographs on file were dated and from a hand-cranked machine straight out of the 70s. So, great, great times all the way around. And it's not that I'm too discerning on the pedigree side of things - 10% from 700 seems fair, especially considering some of the nonsense bred these days - nor can we be accused of coming in with a small bankroll (it was millions, I swear). Quite frustrating and has me thinking more and more that we'll have to transition to breeding horses ourselves. The commercial market isn't doing the trick these days. If I needed an $80,000 2yo that could go 21 3/5 tomorrow and have a 50/50 chance of making the races from there, I'd be all set, but that's not my bag. I'll have to make inquiries into Nautical Agent's status up in NY. At the rate I'm going, I'll need that prospective foal as our next charge...

On the national racing scene, all the hyperbole surrounding Big Brown seems a bit much. Ummm, do I have it right that it was Macho Again grinding up for second the other day? Furthermore, the winner - who is quite nice, of course - earned a 100 Beyer speed figure for the effort. What happens if Kent really cuts him loose, (which he essentially did, btw)? He gets a 104? Not exactly the stuff of legends. The Japanese horse should beat him in the Belmont if only because he'll carry his speed the 12f. Kent D has already tipped his hand that he'll throttle Big Brown down in the next one, but Casino Drive has enough speed to lay close and just gallop Big Brown into the ground. He's not as smooth as the other two before him and doesn't have their burst, but his Peter Pan demonstrated that the track/distance should suit him. Main concerns are seasoning and the second off the plane angle, but he's been at Belmont for some time, so it's really more a question of the second race back after a big effort. The other thing is that Belmont track, which doesn't project to play in Big Brown's favor as CD and PIM did. Horses that normally run miles in 1.38/39 were rolling in 1.35/36 at Pimlico, so you know that the surface was playing nice and tight like he prefers. If it's Big Sandy instead of a paved highway, it's one more thing going for Casino Drive. Sake only for me over the next few weeks just to get into the spirit of things.