mais non

Check out this video of the 1999 running of the Arc. Quite the cast of runners that came out for it, which is reason enough to watch, but I mainly raise it to help frame the debate surrounding Curlin's plans to ship out for this year's running. Frankly, I doubt he'll ever set hoof on French soil, but even if he does, I don't see him conquering French racing as he has here in America. It's the ground that will do him in. Sure, it might not be the bog that it was in '99 (remember how Daylami came back in Turf once on firmer footing?), but it sure as heck will be deeper than the US (and UAE) dirt tracks that he's dialed up to the tune of $9m. Big boy is a hard-pounding, dirt-loving, beast and I think he'll struggle to stay against top class going over conditions that aren't to his liking. While it looks like he'll get the really firm turf that he needs in NY tomorrow, which should help, I'd be surprised if he does enough to get his ticket punched for the trans-Atlantic flight. (Better Talk Now seems to be coming into this thing the right way; we'll see if there's a price to be had.)

So, no France for Curlin, which means Asmussen will have to back into the Classic. That means a race over the fake stuff as a prep (remember, they like to do things twice with him), so I guess Turfway or someplace like that followed by the Classic. There he has to deal with that Santa Anita track (both its surface and configuration), which really doesn't play to his strengths. Can't blame these guys for wanting to go to France instead, but it looks like they're stuck between a rock and a stale baguette! I'd take the California option over the turf, but Jackson stopped consulting me on spotting his horses a long time ago. I still drink his wine, though, because I'm not the kind of guy to hold a grudge.