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It's been Bananas, Rice, Applesauce and Toast for the last few days. I done did got nailed by a nasty little number making the rounds. Not fun. Trending in the right direction now, so thought it only right to check in.

The Derby is creeping up on us, which means it's time to start sorting through this year's crop of three-year-olds and see if we can't find ourselves a few good ones. Right off the bat, let's make it clear that I like War Pass and Pyro; they're both nice horses. Frankly, though, I just don't think that either is a Derby winner. The former is a speed machine that's likely to duck serious competition leading up to the Derby and the latter just doesn't strike me as one that will be as effective going a mile and a quarter. Who did he beat at the Fair Grounds this weekend? I mean, he'll be in the hunt because he's a nice horse, in general, but Pyro will be overbet on the day and very vulnerable at the distance. Projects as a perfect spot to play against the two favorites.

Of the 23 offered in pool two of the futures wager, I like Colonel John and Elsyium Fields. Both are bred to get the distance, should handle the quicker pace scenario of the Derby and are trained by top conditioners (Harty and Tagg, respectively). Colonel John has raced exclusively on artificial surfaces, which certainly adds a variable to the mix, but he moves like a horse that should handle dirt just fine. With more pace to attack than he had in that California race, he'll take back and make that sustained run that seems to win the race most years. Tagg's horse, on the other hand, is just a beast. If he holds it together through the year and thrives on Tagg's aggressive training style, he should win some big races. Could the Derby be one of them? Sure. He ran really well in his last at Gulfstream, parked wide most of the way, and has every reason to move forward next out.

We'll see what the spring brings, but it's always fun to have the few to follow. Plus, if things don't work out for Colonel John and Elsyium Fields, I can always fall back on the fever that wiped me out this weekend. How can you hold a man to conclusions arrived at under such physical duress? It just wouldn't be fair. Time for more applesauce. Maybe a nap, too. The typing takes a toll, you know.