on the road again

Nautical Agent will travel north to New York State for a visit with Gold Fever, a son of Forty Niner at stud up there. It's a little late in the season, but rather than lose the year altogether, it made more sense to take a shot and see if she can catch quickly. She's been doing great hanging out with a few geldings on the farm in Colts Neck. Her recovery has been about as good as one can be, so we're thrilled to have the chance to see what she can do as a broodmare. Fingers are crossed that things go well with the breeding.

Gold Fever won the NYRA Mile back in the day (mid 90s, I think) and consistently gets runners. While not as commercially viable as some of the young guns out there, his ability to produce foals that get to the races and win is pretty impressive. They'll run on most anything, too, which helps keep options open. He's a medium-sized stud with a strong back end that I'm hoping will complement Nautical Agent's similar medium-to-small frame (w/ a so-so back end). Both have really good balance, a deceptively long stride for their sizes and were triers. He comes from a stacked Phipps family, which should match well with Nautical's deep Maryland roots.

She'll ship up there in the next few days and we'll see how things go. I imagine she'll be glad to return to NY, scene of some of her finest work.

not fun

I was up at the Meadowlands for the Derby and got out of there pretty quickly after the race. The whole deal was just sad, from the crummy under card to the Derby winner to the tragic breakdown of Eight Belles. Big Brown was impressive, of course, but it's not promising for the breed when the winner of America's classic race for young colts is lame at the warm-up and equally lame cooling out. Sign me up for a stallion share, pronto. Price no object. When the running started, he was all business and a winner at every call, but I imagine that, over time, this group will be found to be sub-par relative to recent generations and that Big Brown was just a standout on the day in an otherwise suspect lot. Most of that field ran quite poorly.

Eight Belles ran her race and performed remarkably well, but the story isn't about how well she did or didn't run, it's about the fact that her effort left her with two broken ankles before even galloping out past the clubhouse turn. It's the worst thing that can happen in this business and I really feel for all the folks involved with the filly. This one hurts a bit more, though, not only because of her obvious talent, a natural draw, but also because the connections made an aggressive play with their filly and got burned in the worst possible way.

Ultimately, I don't think it was any one thing that caused her breakdown, but rather a bunch of little, important factors that added up to open her up to serious trouble. They include the rock hard racing surface, added distance and related stress of race (she had never raced beyond 1m 1/16th), the big work on Sunday in 58 1/5, and perhaps the fineness of her bone. You couldn't point to any one particular item and suggest "that's the one," with definite certainty (though I'm sure many would point solely to the surface, which I can understand). Instead, as it always seems to be, it was likely a collection of variables that added up to increase the odds of something horrible happening.

As anyone that works with horses will tell you, every time they leave the stall (and even sometimes when they don't) it's always some measure of stress that their bodies are enduring. You control for it as best you can, bring them along in a fashion that empowers them to thrive and grow in concert with increased stress loads and stand ever vigilant and ready to back off in the event that the work load is too much. It's a daily balancing act and more like a high wire act with certain horses. Well, the stress was clearly too much yesterday for the poor filly. Somewhere along the line maybe the balancing act was knocked out of whack, maybe they squeezed just a bit too much out of that track during that Friday night. We'll never know for sure, but the tragic ending for Eight Belles reminds us to do our best to manage the wide range of variables constantly in play and that our foremost goal, win, lose or draw, is to get them back to the barn.

no charge for this stuff?

The Derby is on Saturday and the American thing to do is have an opinion. It's not a real opinion these days unless you then blog about it, so here goes. Let's rip through this field from the rail out.

Cool Coal Man - nice colt with big-time burst, but not going to be at his best going the distance. I can see him leading at the top of the lane after sitting a pocket trip and trying to hold off as many as he can. Marginal exotics use.

Tale of Ekati - another that doesn't project to relish the added ground. Don't care for how he's worked leading up to the race - that Wood might have taken a toll. Don't see him passing horses late in the race.

Anak Nakal - loves Churchill Downs and ran a big figure as a 2yo there last year. Horse grew tremendously over the winter and Zito only just getting him right/fit. He'll be better still in 4-5 mos, but the Derby is tomorrow, so no crying. He'll go off at 70-1 and I'll bet a few bucks to win and use him in all exotics. Maybe more likely to finish 6th-7th, but his chances of being around late are much greater than his odds will suggest. (Plus, he shares his sire, Victory Gallop, with our girl, Nautical Agent.)

Court Vision - super-duper trier, just doesn't have the ability. Didn't mature much from two to three and pretty much just gets by on his heart. If there's a total pace melt down, he can suck along for minor awards.

Eight Belles - don't see her as effective at the added distance and girl hasn't even gone the 1m 1/8. Not the spot to try it out.

Z Fortune - hope he can bounce back from big race at Oaklawn; all reports suggest he's training strongly. Pace/trip worked in his favor in last. If he can work out similar run, I can see him getting a piece.

Big Truck - not a fan of his work pattern and don't see him getting the distance. Company lines don't flatter.

Visionaire - fits the profile of Derby winner that we've seen all too often (okay finish in Blue Grass). Gotham effort was strong; works this week just okay, but he's reported to be a lazy work horse. I think he's got a really big shot. I know my man, Brad Thomas, has him on top. If he's sitting at 20-1, definitely worth a few bucks.

Pyro - if he dislikes the Poly, why still train at Keeneland? Missed some time recently, but galloping well late this week. He's a son of Pulpit, so it's not too crazy to think that he might be dealing w/ some physical issues. Asmussen can nurse one w/ the best of them, but you never like to come into the Derby w/ so many question marks. Wouldn't be shocked to see him win, but poor showing wouldn't surprise, either. Not the worst bet if price okay, but I suspect that he'll take action, so he's only a light use for me.

Colonel John - most likely winner, but he'll have to deal w/ dirt, which shouldn't be a problem and traffic issues which might. He's not the handiest horse. Gut is that something comes up and he's 3rd or 4th instead of winner. At 4-1, not much value, but a must use.

Z Humor - company lines not too hot and work this week didn't do much for me. Not using.

Smooth Air - trainer a good guy and solid conditioner. Colt another trier, but is really stretched at distance. Fever this week probably not a good thing.

Bob Black Jack - the X-factor. Does he rate or go? If he goes, he's in front of Big Brown and a major player through first half of race at a minimum. If pace unfolds in his favor, he can get a minor piece. If everybody goes, he'll take a good lot of them down with him. Minor use at best.

Monba - moves way up on the artificial stuff. Think he'll be over the top after a big effort in the Blue Grass. I'll play against.

Adriano - better on turf/artificial, but still a really nice prospect. I can't get past that he moves like a turf horse and doesn't seem to care for any kind of dirt in his face. Can he go 4-wide all the way around and win? I'll use him underneath.

Denis of Cork - lacks seasoning, but he'll be better down the line after some maturing. File away for Travers. Maybe he can get share on talent alone, I don't know. Minor use at big price.

Cowboy Cal - see Monba/Adriano. This guy is a turf horse.

Recapturetheglory - great story and nice, little colt. Ran a huge race in the Illinois Derby, but doesn't get same set-up and added distance no bargain, either. Don't see how race unfolds in a way that gives him any kind of breather, especially from this post.

Gayego - really talented and super-impressive in last two. How does he carry on the added eighth, though? Watch out if the two outside horses both go. Pedigree gets him here, but he'll be major player through good part of race and 3yo to watch for balance of year.

Big Brown - talented, but concedes major seasoning, experience and all that stuff. Post is terrible and he'll have some serious horses to contend with in opening quarters. At 5-2, he's an easy play against.

Action: I'll see what prices look like and probably have a couple dollars on Visionaire, plus the few on Anak Nakal at a number. I'll mess around in exotics with those two plus Colonel John, Cool Coal Man, Z Fortune, Pyro, Adriano and Denis of Cork. Good luck!

chirp, chirp

Sorry for the disappearing act over the last few weeks. It's been busy planning the move to Baltimore, showing the house and preparing for Kate's birthday. Every year, she insists that I top the previous year's celebration, so it's getting harder and harder to make magic. Last year, I had Siegfried and Roy put on a comeback performance to celebrate the occasion, but now I've used the big comeback card and need to branch out in new directions. I'm thinking of maybe casting my body in a solid gold statue, but that might be a bit over the top. I know, you'd think that it can't get much more OTT than the boys from Las Vegas, but it's a fine line. We'll see what I can cook up.

Horses are doing okay. Not too much to report that's new or different. Still sorting out a breeding plan for Nautical Agent and Veiled Reference putting her time in on the farm before a return. All reports indicate that both are well, but I'll be happier once I have the former in foal and the latter back in training. Two-year old in training sale at Timonium is coming up in a few weeks, so I'll have that to sort through soon enough. We bought a good one in Pretty Partisan down there a few years ago, and have tabbed a few others that have done okay, too, so I always like to work that sale over pretty hard. Now that I know a few more spots in Baltimore, I'll know where to hit up for dinner once the sales stuff has wrapped up. We were down over the weekend and had some fiiiine crabcakes at a place down by the water. I could get used to that kind of living, man, I will say that.

no, no, i said faster

Now that we've established that Big Brown - big, big winner of the Florida Derby - is, like, the greatest horse ever, let's take a looksie and see if all the hype is justified. Visually, the performance was really good, and he obviously has to be a horse of some caliber to pull off what he did in just his third lifetime start. But does he deserve to be the futures favorite in the Derby?

I just looked around for a link to the Derby favorite thing, which I couldn't find (I confess: I didn't look too hard), but I did come across a blog entry over at bloodhorse.com: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet. Fortunately, he doesn't touch on my case for knocking the colt, so I didn't have to scrap this little here blog entry, which would have been sad. I know my readership can only take so many entries on Nautical Agent's nicely healed leg and Veiled Reference spending lazy days on the farm. So, it's good that my man didn't steal my thunder. Setting aside the seasoning issue, which is real, of course, the primary reason that Big Brown will be a big bet against in a few weeks is that his profile just doesn't do it for me. Every quarter in that Florida Derby race was slower than the previous one, and that's not good. Have a look:

1/4: 22.76
1/2: 23.07
3/4: 24.25
1m: 25.10
1/8: 12.98
Final: 1.48.16

To compare it to something, in the last race of the day, won by Electrify, a nice Grade 2 1/2 colt, they posted the following splits:

1/4: 24.26
1/2: 23.03
3/4: 23.59
1m: 24.39
1/8: 12.66
Final: 1.47 4/5


It's that third quarter, where most top races are won and lost, that really raises some red flags for Big Brown. I mean, my man was really slowing down. The fourth quarter is an obvious concern. Add the fact that nobody in that race ran at all (Smooth Air, a nice trier was second, let's not forget) and it kind of puts things in perspective. He's a nice colt, sure, but what price would Electrify be in the Derby? 8-1? I just don't see the race shaping up in his favor, particularly with the pace profile he'll likely see. It won't be Nistle's Crunch (NJ bred!) sitting off of him, you know?

I'll stick with Colonel John, who only needs a solid race on Saturday in California. Others that might benefit from how the Derby is shaping up are Visionaire, a horse I don't particularly care for, but might get a great set-up; Cool Coal Man, who can also move and hold on; and, of course, Pyro, the most likely winner, who has a couple of holes. Let's hope War Pass rolls in the Wood and takes more action than he should in KY. It seems, though, that the book is out on him. Dennis of Cork probably won't try in the Illinois Derby, if you listen to his connections go on about the sheets. Z Humor can sit off Golden Spike and do a little something, something. His comeback was okay.

Nautical Agent, 3/28/08

"Do I see a camera?"


"Here, this is my better side."

Pics from visit to Ponderosa Farm in Colts Neck, NJ. Nautical looks great. Leg has done really well with the time off and she's her usual plucky self. She had a great time goofing around with the horses hanging out in the paddock just next to Doug. She kept on baiting them to come closer to her and then they would get themselves tweaked with the current that runs through the fencing. All three of them would jump up and then do it all over again. The things horses do to entertain themselves... Plans are still in the works, but she'll likely travel to Kentucky to breed in the next few weeks. Hopefully, she'll get a nice, healthy foal next spring.

where's the wire?

Go ahead and have a look at Steve Haskin's Derby notes recently posted up on bloodhorse.com. They're always worth the read, and every so often you get the nugget or two that's worth filing away. This week's piece is primarily on Pyro, so I figured it only fair to chime in with my thoughts on the colt (you know, because the world deserves to know where I stand). So, he's a nice horse. A really, really nice horse. The knock, though, as it relates to the Derby is that he'll be tremendously vulnerable at the distance if only because he moves too sharply for his own good. I mean, he's just a super-duper accelerator. He's not, though, much of a stayer, and you've got to have some stay in you to win the Derby. My gut is that he'll make his usual sharp move and find himself wanting in the final quarter. The form will go, he'll wonder what the hell is going on and someone will out-grind him to the wire. As I've previously posted, my money is on either Colonel John (stayer) or Elsyium Fields (grinder) to take him out. Doesn't mean Pyro is a bad horse, of course, only that's he'll be more vulnerable at the 1m 1/4 than some would have you believe. Now that War Pass has been exposed, I'll need Pyro to get to the Derby unscathed to have any hope of cashing a ticket worth the few bucks, so let's hope that he rolls in his final prep. For what it's worth, my favorite part of that whole article was the bit where Garret Gomez's agent, Ron Anderson, goes on about Pyro's greatness. Is there a bigger kiss of death than a jock's agent extolling your virtues? It's the equivalent of when TLC started up shows on flipping houses where total tools would put in new tile and hardwood floors and then beam into the camera about how easy the money was. I feel that the jocks' agents getting on board with Pyro is about the same thing. Makes me kind of skeptical. We'll see one way or the other whether his bubble bursts, too, in the few weeks.