chirp, chirp

Sorry for the disappearing act over the last few weeks. It's been busy planning the move to Baltimore, showing the house and preparing for Kate's birthday. Every year, she insists that I top the previous year's celebration, so it's getting harder and harder to make magic. Last year, I had Siegfried and Roy put on a comeback performance to celebrate the occasion, but now I've used the big comeback card and need to branch out in new directions. I'm thinking of maybe casting my body in a solid gold statue, but that might be a bit over the top. I know, you'd think that it can't get much more OTT than the boys from Las Vegas, but it's a fine line. We'll see what I can cook up.

Horses are doing okay. Not too much to report that's new or different. Still sorting out a breeding plan for Nautical Agent and Veiled Reference putting her time in on the farm before a return. All reports indicate that both are well, but I'll be happier once I have the former in foal and the latter back in training. Two-year old in training sale at Timonium is coming up in a few weeks, so I'll have that to sort through soon enough. We bought a good one in Pretty Partisan down there a few years ago, and have tabbed a few others that have done okay, too, so I always like to work that sale over pretty hard. Now that I know a few more spots in Baltimore, I'll know where to hit up for dinner once the sales stuff has wrapped up. We were down over the weekend and had some fiiiine crabcakes at a place down by the water. I could get used to that kind of living, man, I will say that.

no, no, i said faster

Now that we've established that Big Brown - big, big winner of the Florida Derby - is, like, the greatest horse ever, let's take a looksie and see if all the hype is justified. Visually, the performance was really good, and he obviously has to be a horse of some caliber to pull off what he did in just his third lifetime start. But does he deserve to be the futures favorite in the Derby?

I just looked around for a link to the Derby favorite thing, which I couldn't find (I confess: I didn't look too hard), but I did come across a blog entry over at bloodhorse.com: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet. Fortunately, he doesn't touch on my case for knocking the colt, so I didn't have to scrap this little here blog entry, which would have been sad. I know my readership can only take so many entries on Nautical Agent's nicely healed leg and Veiled Reference spending lazy days on the farm. So, it's good that my man didn't steal my thunder. Setting aside the seasoning issue, which is real, of course, the primary reason that Big Brown will be a big bet against in a few weeks is that his profile just doesn't do it for me. Every quarter in that Florida Derby race was slower than the previous one, and that's not good. Have a look:

1/4: 22.76
1/2: 23.07
3/4: 24.25
1m: 25.10
1/8: 12.98
Final: 1.48.16

To compare it to something, in the last race of the day, won by Electrify, a nice Grade 2 1/2 colt, they posted the following splits:

1/4: 24.26
1/2: 23.03
3/4: 23.59
1m: 24.39
1/8: 12.66
Final: 1.47 4/5


It's that third quarter, where most top races are won and lost, that really raises some red flags for Big Brown. I mean, my man was really slowing down. The fourth quarter is an obvious concern. Add the fact that nobody in that race ran at all (Smooth Air, a nice trier was second, let's not forget) and it kind of puts things in perspective. He's a nice colt, sure, but what price would Electrify be in the Derby? 8-1? I just don't see the race shaping up in his favor, particularly with the pace profile he'll likely see. It won't be Nistle's Crunch (NJ bred!) sitting off of him, you know?

I'll stick with Colonel John, who only needs a solid race on Saturday in California. Others that might benefit from how the Derby is shaping up are Visionaire, a horse I don't particularly care for, but might get a great set-up; Cool Coal Man, who can also move and hold on; and, of course, Pyro, the most likely winner, who has a couple of holes. Let's hope War Pass rolls in the Wood and takes more action than he should in KY. It seems, though, that the book is out on him. Dennis of Cork probably won't try in the Illinois Derby, if you listen to his connections go on about the sheets. Z Humor can sit off Golden Spike and do a little something, something. His comeback was okay.

Nautical Agent, 3/28/08

"Do I see a camera?"


"Here, this is my better side."

Pics from visit to Ponderosa Farm in Colts Neck, NJ. Nautical looks great. Leg has done really well with the time off and she's her usual plucky self. She had a great time goofing around with the horses hanging out in the paddock just next to Doug. She kept on baiting them to come closer to her and then they would get themselves tweaked with the current that runs through the fencing. All three of them would jump up and then do it all over again. The things horses do to entertain themselves... Plans are still in the works, but she'll likely travel to Kentucky to breed in the next few weeks. Hopefully, she'll get a nice, healthy foal next spring.

where's the wire?

Go ahead and have a look at Steve Haskin's Derby notes recently posted up on bloodhorse.com. They're always worth the read, and every so often you get the nugget or two that's worth filing away. This week's piece is primarily on Pyro, so I figured it only fair to chime in with my thoughts on the colt (you know, because the world deserves to know where I stand). So, he's a nice horse. A really, really nice horse. The knock, though, as it relates to the Derby is that he'll be tremendously vulnerable at the distance if only because he moves too sharply for his own good. I mean, he's just a super-duper accelerator. He's not, though, much of a stayer, and you've got to have some stay in you to win the Derby. My gut is that he'll make his usual sharp move and find himself wanting in the final quarter. The form will go, he'll wonder what the hell is going on and someone will out-grind him to the wire. As I've previously posted, my money is on either Colonel John (stayer) or Elsyium Fields (grinder) to take him out. Doesn't mean Pyro is a bad horse, of course, only that's he'll be more vulnerable at the 1m 1/4 than some would have you believe. Now that War Pass has been exposed, I'll need Pyro to get to the Derby unscathed to have any hope of cashing a ticket worth the few bucks, so let's hope that he rolls in his final prep. For what it's worth, my favorite part of that whole article was the bit where Garret Gomez's agent, Ron Anderson, goes on about Pyro's greatness. Is there a bigger kiss of death than a jock's agent extolling your virtues? It's the equivalent of when TLC started up shows on flipping houses where total tools would put in new tile and hardwood floors and then beam into the camera about how easy the money was. I feel that the jocks' agents getting on board with Pyro is about the same thing. Makes me kind of skeptical. We'll see one way or the other whether his bubble bursts, too, in the few weeks.

randomness

I've become numb to the steady flow of traffickers through casa 26. I'm still bouncing back from the woman that went on about the crappy state of our kitchen cabinets and upstairs carpet. Even her husband was shrugging his shoulders after she had droned on for a good five minutes. It was a shrug that said "What can I say? This is my lot in life. My wife, she does not shut up. I know this. It is no use for me to interfere. Please ignore her." Anyway, that was the vibe I got from him, so I just rolled with her constant harping and figured we'd never hear from them. Not so fast, of course. Sure enough, a few days later their agent called to make an offer. Ha! Too bad it was obscenely under the asking price because, she said, "You must understand: much work will have to be done on the carpets and cabinets." Naturally, I asked what kind of cabinets she'd be putting in for that kind of spread in price. At least that got a chuckle out of the agent. She asked for a counteroffer and I countered with the original asking price. In retrospect, I probably took too much pleasure in that one. My regret is not throwing in $3.50 for polish to use on the current cabinets. Too bad everybody seems to have read this article in the Times about lowballing. At this rate we'll have buyers suggesting that we pay them to take the place off of our hands.

For now, I'm stuck with my toaster and kettle stored in the car and all my racing stuff hidden away, probably never to be found. Not fun times. One point that I forgot to make in an earlier post on War Pass is that the Florida race taught us that our boy isn't the bravest horse to look through a bridle, I'm afraid. When Velasquez tried to go between horses after the slow break, War Pass just wouldn't do it. He was scarred, plain and simple. Plenty of horses have the same problem, but when it's one of the Derby favorites, it's noteworthy. I'd be curious to know what kind of work Zito has had him do with other horses in the morning. Has he done much in and behind workmates? Interesting that the War Pass as a scaredy-cat angle hasn't gotten more ink. I guess it was more palatable for Team Zito/LaPenta to suggest a fever rather than come right out and say, "Yeah, we know he's brilliant on the front end, but I guess we learned today that he's fairly chickenshit, too, when faced with adversity." That's not the kind of quote you'd be able to write up on a stallion advertisement in a few years....(Mental note: do not breed to War Pass.)

in the books

Just wrapped up the Adena Springs and OBS 2yo-in-training sales down in Florida and can report that the T Street roster remains unchanged (it's a very select bunch). Both sales offer pros and cons and are worth putting in the time. The staff at Adena Springs knows its stock really well (after all, they've raised the full lot of 'em), so the reserves are typically spot on. It's one of those sales where you have to go in knowing what kind of conformation/x-ray issues that you're willing to deal with on a case by case basis. Joe Orseno buys a lot of stock at Adena because he knows the families really well (used to be Stronach's private trainer) and is probably more familiar with some of the issues that run through the generations. I like that each horse gets his or her own program on the breeze days. Stress levels are kept to a minimum and you're less likely to deal with injuries coming out of this sale than you would be with some of those consigned to OBS. I looked at two, fillies by Olmodavor and Milwaukee Brew (hips 43 and 104, respectively). They worked quite nicely, particularly the Olmodavor filly, but physical issues were their undoing. You can have a look at their works here, if you're so inclined. Both demonstrate great balance and efficiency of motion and neither are really pushed on for much run - just the kind of works I like to see. Too bad all parts weren't pointing in the right direction.

OBS, which just finished today, was interesting. All the horses really love the new artificial surface, as most horses do, so it's trickier to project how some of the stock might act on dirt. Pedigrees usually help, of course, but it's an added layer of speculation in an already highly speculative endeavor. Horses worked really fast over the fake stuff, which is no big surprise. The trend that got me was just how big some of the bodies were on these 2yos. Muscle mass was off the charts through the body, but, in the main, there was very little bone underneath to carry the load. It's well known that there are all sorts of supplements, steroids and witch's brews involved with a lot of the stock, but I found it more striking than in previous years. Some of these horses were laughingly large for their frames and you just know that physical stuff will surface before a red nickel is earned on the track. Key at this sale is knowing the consignors. I looked at one, a Wiseman's Ferry filly (hip 177; video here). She was nice - great body and balance - but I couldn't get past her lugging in during both breezes. Something must be cooking in that left side, I figure, so I didn't even bother going further into due diligence work. Sure enough, she went unsold at a final bid of $60,000 (quite light given her works), so she must have had something up. Maybe she'll be able to cope and do well on the track, I don't know. Just won't be on my dime.

not cool

Real nice of Bob Lapenta, owner of War Pass, to come out after the race and share that his colt had a little fever earlier in the week. (You can watch Tampa Bay Derby here.) Guess what, Bob? You keep that kind of information to yourself, talk up your boy all week, and then have him run like he did means that you can't play the fever card, I'm sorry. Either everything is disclosed beforehand, or nothing at all. War Pass was horrible, probably due to whatever he had going on, and the race is essentially a toss. I'd point him to the Met Mile, but they'll go in the Wood and look to continue on in Kentucky. A really, really good horse. Exposed a little earlier than most anticipated as a Derby pretender, but that's the nature of the beast this time of year.

Veiled Reference is coming up on her thirty days off come the end of this week. We'll radiograph her again and likely dial up another 30 days off just for good measure. That should set her up well to commence training in late April for a summer/fall campaign.