chirp, chirp

Sorry for the disappearing act over the last few weeks. It's been busy planning the move to Baltimore, showing the house and preparing for Kate's birthday. Every year, she insists that I top the previous year's celebration, so it's getting harder and harder to make magic. Last year, I had Siegfried and Roy put on a comeback performance to celebrate the occasion, but now I've used the big comeback card and need to branch out in new directions. I'm thinking of maybe casting my body in a solid gold statue, but that might be a bit over the top. I know, you'd think that it can't get much more OTT than the boys from Las Vegas, but it's a fine line. We'll see what I can cook up.

Horses are doing okay. Not too much to report that's new or different. Still sorting out a breeding plan for Nautical Agent and Veiled Reference putting her time in on the farm before a return. All reports indicate that both are well, but I'll be happier once I have the former in foal and the latter back in training. Two-year old in training sale at Timonium is coming up in a few weeks, so I'll have that to sort through soon enough. We bought a good one in Pretty Partisan down there a few years ago, and have tabbed a few others that have done okay, too, so I always like to work that sale over pretty hard. Now that I know a few more spots in Baltimore, I'll know where to hit up for dinner once the sales stuff has wrapped up. We were down over the weekend and had some fiiiine crabcakes at a place down by the water. I could get used to that kind of living, man, I will say that.

no, no, i said faster

Now that we've established that Big Brown - big, big winner of the Florida Derby - is, like, the greatest horse ever, let's take a looksie and see if all the hype is justified. Visually, the performance was really good, and he obviously has to be a horse of some caliber to pull off what he did in just his third lifetime start. But does he deserve to be the futures favorite in the Derby?

I just looked around for a link to the Derby favorite thing, which I couldn't find (I confess: I didn't look too hard), but I did come across a blog entry over at bloodhorse.com: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet. Fortunately, he doesn't touch on my case for knocking the colt, so I didn't have to scrap this little here blog entry, which would have been sad. I know my readership can only take so many entries on Nautical Agent's nicely healed leg and Veiled Reference spending lazy days on the farm. So, it's good that my man didn't steal my thunder. Setting aside the seasoning issue, which is real, of course, the primary reason that Big Brown will be a big bet against in a few weeks is that his profile just doesn't do it for me. Every quarter in that Florida Derby race was slower than the previous one, and that's not good. Have a look:

1/4: 22.76
1/2: 23.07
3/4: 24.25
1m: 25.10
1/8: 12.98
Final: 1.48.16

To compare it to something, in the last race of the day, won by Electrify, a nice Grade 2 1/2 colt, they posted the following splits:

1/4: 24.26
1/2: 23.03
3/4: 23.59
1m: 24.39
1/8: 12.66
Final: 1.47 4/5


It's that third quarter, where most top races are won and lost, that really raises some red flags for Big Brown. I mean, my man was really slowing down. The fourth quarter is an obvious concern. Add the fact that nobody in that race ran at all (Smooth Air, a nice trier was second, let's not forget) and it kind of puts things in perspective. He's a nice colt, sure, but what price would Electrify be in the Derby? 8-1? I just don't see the race shaping up in his favor, particularly with the pace profile he'll likely see. It won't be Nistle's Crunch (NJ bred!) sitting off of him, you know?

I'll stick with Colonel John, who only needs a solid race on Saturday in California. Others that might benefit from how the Derby is shaping up are Visionaire, a horse I don't particularly care for, but might get a great set-up; Cool Coal Man, who can also move and hold on; and, of course, Pyro, the most likely winner, who has a couple of holes. Let's hope War Pass rolls in the Wood and takes more action than he should in KY. It seems, though, that the book is out on him. Dennis of Cork probably won't try in the Illinois Derby, if you listen to his connections go on about the sheets. Z Humor can sit off Golden Spike and do a little something, something. His comeback was okay.

Nautical Agent, 3/28/08

"Do I see a camera?"


"Here, this is my better side."

Pics from visit to Ponderosa Farm in Colts Neck, NJ. Nautical looks great. Leg has done really well with the time off and she's her usual plucky self. She had a great time goofing around with the horses hanging out in the paddock just next to Doug. She kept on baiting them to come closer to her and then they would get themselves tweaked with the current that runs through the fencing. All three of them would jump up and then do it all over again. The things horses do to entertain themselves... Plans are still in the works, but she'll likely travel to Kentucky to breed in the next few weeks. Hopefully, she'll get a nice, healthy foal next spring.